With their 27-25 loss to the Minnesota Vikings this past Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium, one in which they trailed by 17 points before nearly pulling off a fourth-quarter comeback, the Green Bay Packers knocked themselves out of the running for the No. 5 seed in the NFC.
Dropping to 11-5 with the defeat, the Packers were also knocked out of the sixth slot, which they'd held for more than a month, as the Washington Commanders punched their ticket and matched Green Bay at 11-5 with a 30-24 overtime victory over the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday Night Football.
As the two teams didn't play one another this season, the head-to-head tiebreaker obviously doesn't apply. The second tiebreaker in determining seeding for a wild-card slot is record within the conference.
Washington is 8-3 against NFC opponents, while Green Bay is 6-5, thus giving the Commanders the No. 6 seed heading into Week 18, with the Packers sitting at No. 7. The No. 5 slot, of course, is guaranteed to the loser of Sunday night's matchup between the Vikings and Detroit Lions, with the winner taking both the NFC North and the No. 1 seed.
So, what needs to happen in this final week of the regular season for Green Bay to get back into the No. 6 position?
Packers playoff scenarios for Week 18
The path for the Packers to lock up the No. 6 seed in the NFC is pretty straightforward.
First, the Packers must defeat the rival Chicago Bears, as a loss immediately gives the spot to the Commanders. If Green Bay wins and Washington loses its regular-season finale to Mike McCarthy and the Dallas Cowboys, the Packers earn the No. 6 slot, with the Commanders falling to No. 7.
If both teams win or lose, Washington takes the No. 6 position due to the aforementioned tiebreaker. As unlikely as they may be, ties could be a factor as well, so here's a look at every scenario that would work for the Packers to win the sixth spot.
- Packers win vs. Bears + Commanders lose/tie vs. Cowboys
- Packers tie vs. Bears + Commanders lose vs. Cowboys