Important storylines to watch for Packers vs. 49ers in Week 12

The Green Bay Packers head into a Week 12 grudge match against the San Francisco 49ers after narrowly defeating the Chicago Bears last weekend. The 49ers enter the game in a less-than-ideal state, with franchise stars like Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa out, while Trent Williams is questionable.

At 7-3, the Packers are in the playoff picture, and a win here would help to keep the pressure on the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings in the race for the NFC North.

As always, there will be plenty to watch, but here are three storylines you should be following in this one.

Can the Packers stop the outside run game?

The Packers' ability to contain the outside run game has the potential to be a huge part of this game. Since returning from injury in Week 10, 27 of Christian McCaffrey's 32 carries have gone outside the tackles. That's an 84.4% outside rush rate, which is the highest in the NFL.

Though McCaffrey hasn't had a ton of success on these runs to this point, it has been a reliable part of the 49ers offense this season. Per NFL Pro, They rank sixth in success rate on outside runs and seventh in rush yards over expectation (RYOE).

That could be an issue for this Packers defense. Through 11 weeks, Green Bay is allowing 74.1 yards per game to outside runs, which is the 11th-highest total in the NFL. They've been particularly vulnerable to big carries, allowing 24 runs of 10+ yards. That is the eighth most in the NFL, despite the Packers ranking 19th in the number of outside rushes faced.

They are below average in pretty much any other statistical category you want to look at on these plays. They are 24th in RYOE per attempt, 21st in EPA per rush, and 24th in stuff rate.

This is no doubt going to be a weakness that the 49ers look to exploit this weekend. If the Packers can limit them, they should have a good shot of constraining this offense and securing the win.

Jayden Reed vs. Deommodore Lenoir

I highlighted the importance of the slot battle in last week's game against the Bears, and it looks like it could be a key factor once again this weekend.

Chicago actually did quite a good job of limiting Jayden Reed, who managed just two catches for 23 yards and a touchdown. With one of the best slot corners in the NFL in Deommodore Lenoir, San Francisco will be hoping to do the same.

Per PFF, Lenoir is the only player in the NFL to have played 250+ snaps from the slot this season without allowing a touchdown. On those plays, he has allowed a passer rating of just 66.1, second to only Marlon Humphrey.

Understandably, opposing offenses haven't been particularly willing to test him. His 5.6 targets per game ranks 25th of 42 slot corners with at least 100 snaps. The Packers might have to.

Reed continues to do his best work from the slot and this team has been at its best when he has been a focal point of the passing attack. Per NFL Pro, his 303 yards on vertical slot routes rank third in the NFL behind Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb.

This is one of those individual matchups that has the potential to swing the outcome of the game. Whatever happens, it should certainly be entertaining to watch.

Is it the beginning of the end for Lukas Van Ness?

A lot has been said about second-year edge rusher Lukas Van Ness this season. He has not lived up to expectation and the potential for a second year breakout has not materialised. Week 12 has the potential to be very instructive about Van Ness' future with the team.

Last week we got to see more of Brenton Cox, and he showed promise. The former undrafted free agent made the most of his opportunities following the departure of Preston Smith, with a sack and a hit on Caleb Williams.

By contrast, it was another quiet game for Van Ness. He generated one pressure and saw his snap count drop from 41% to 34%. Van Ness hasn't had a game with more than one pressure all season, and his 4.6% pressure rate is the lowest of any edge rusher with at least 150 pass-rushing snaps.

Van Ness was always a player that required some development, but with Cox looking promising in limited snaps and Kingsley Enagbare outproducing him, you do have to wonder if he is ever going to put it together and show the kind of production you would expect for a first-round pick.

If Cox builds on the promise he showed last week against Chicago and Van Ness has yet another quiet game, it is going to be increasingly difficult for this coaching staff to continue giving Van Ness substantial playing time.

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