The Green Bay Packers' Dexter Lawrence dream is over. Based on the trade details, they never had a shot.
Adam Schefter had offered hope when he said the Packers could be "in that mix" for a Lawrence trade. Optimism grew further when Schefter predicted it may only cost picks in the second and fifth rounds to get a deal done for the three-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle.
Narrator: Dexter Lawrence did not go for a two and a five.
The New York Giants have, in fact, traded their star lineman, sending him to the Cincinnati Bengals for the No. 10 selection in this week's NFL Draft. No, that is not a typo. The Bengals gave up the 10th overall pick for Lawrence.
Bengals' massive overpay for Dexter Lawrence proves the Packers never stood a chance
It's a stunning trade. It's laughable, in fact.
Lawrence is a fantastic player, but the 10th selection in the draft?! For a 28-year-old defensive tackle coming off a disappointing season?! It's a high-risk move for the Bengals, who paid a price way higher than anybody anticipated.
"Talking to several coaches around the NFL right now ... they are STUNNED the Giants got what they did for Dexter Lawrence," writes Connor Hughes of SNY. "All agree: Very good player, but not worth No. 10."
"Age, injury and concerns regarding his conditioning pointed out. Also that you need to limit the number of snaps he plays to maximize his production; really just a one position player."
There's no doubt Lawrence could've helped the Packers. He would've solved their nose tackle problem, especially ahead of a thin draft class at the position. At his best, Lawrence is one of the most disruptive interior linemen in the NFL.
He is only a year removed from registering nine sacks, while no defensive tackle comes close to his tally of pressures over the past four seasons.
Any team that traded for Lawrence would have to bank on him regaining his best production. He recorded only half a sack last year. And entering his age-29 season, there's the risk that Lawrence's best production is behind him.
Still, he is undoubtedly an excellent player and would've given the Packers a significant upgrade up front.
But the 10th overall pick? The Packers couldn't compete with that. They don't even own a pick in the first round, let alone a top-10 selection. Any realistic hope for Green Bay rested on no team being willing to part ways with a Day 1 pick. It would've required some sort of package, likely starting with the Packers' top choice at No. 52 overall.
Green Bay doesn't own a first-round pick in the next two drafts, and its 2028 first-round choice is frozen due to the Micah Parsons trade. The Packers and Dallas Cowboys quietly included a "poison pill" clause – if Green Bay trades Parsons to an NFC East team before 2027, it must send its 2028 first-round choice to Dallas. The same rule applies to the Cowboys with Kenny Clark and NFC North teams.
For that reason, both teams' 2028 first-round choice remains untouchable in trades until that stipulation is over.
The Bengals were willing to part ways with a premium draft pick to land Lawrence. The Packers had no shot at competing with that.
And even if they could, that's not a price worth paying. Packers fans' dreams of landing Lawrence are over, but for a price that absurdly high, it's actually comforting knowing they never had a realistic chance. It's far better than narrowly missing out.
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