The Green Bay Packers were supposed to have the advantage. The tougher conditions, the better, right? Apparently not. Instead, Dan Campbell's Detroit Lions, a dome team that hadn't played an outdoor game in almost 10 months, showed the Packers how to win in the elements.
In hindsight, the Packers should've started Malik Willis over Jordan Love, who battled a groin injury.
No, this isn't an argument for the Packers replacing Love with Willis permanently—far from it. But given Love's limitations in this game, Green Bay's offense cried out for Willis' playmaking ability.
Detroit had the perfect game plan offensively. It leaned on its run game and made life easy on Jared Goff when he dropped back to pass. Goff took what the defense gave him and never needed to take unnecessary risks. That's how you win in sloppy conditions, but the Packers didn't get the memo.
Packers' baffling game plan makes starting Jordan Love look even worse
With rain tumbling, winning with the passing game would never work. The Packers had no choice once they fell down 24-3, but it could've gone so differently.
Green Bay proved it could run the ball early in the game, with Josh Jacobs producing 76 yards on his opening eight carries against the league's ninth-best rushing defense. But the Packers couldn't get out of their own way. Sure, pre-snap penalties and drops ruined drives, but Green Bay also opted for far too many low-percentage throws.
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Love attempted seven deep passes (20-plus yards), completing three. Goff attempted zero. Most of his work came behind the sticks, with the Lions only attempting three passes beyond 10 yards. They understood the need to take the easy completions and not force the ball downfield in conditions that reduced the margin for error.
Matt LaFleur didn't have his best day, both for his in-game decisions and overall plan entering the contest. He deserves as much blame as anyone.
Packers rarely went under center vs. Lions
Playing under center was the way to go in these elements, allowing the offense to lean heavily on the ground game and then build play-action passes off of it. But the Packers couldn't do it because of Love's injury, only lining up under center four times.
On Monday, LaFleur confirmed it was a decision to protect Love, who was clearly below 100 percent.
Love only went under center on four of the Packers' 62 offensive snaps. While part of that can be blamed on chasing the game in the second half, they were going almost exclusively in the shotgun or pistol before the Lions built a big lead.
Jordan Love vs. Lions | Snaps |
|---|---|
Under center | 4 |
Pistol | 13 |
Shotgun | 45 |
Compare that to the Lions' offense. Goff ran twice as many under-center snaps on Detroit's opening drive than Love did in the entire game. That can't be blamed solely on the game script because it was a close contest until late in the second quarter.
Jared Goff vs. Packers | Snaps |
|---|---|
Under center | 33 |
Pistol | 0 |
Shotgun | 19 |
Part of the problem was Love's lack of mobility. He rarely rolled out of the pocket, and on one of the few occasions that he did to attempt a last-second heave at the end of the second quarter, he pulled up in discomfort.
Willis would've allowed the Packers to operate more under center, prioritize the run game, and then build in the play-action pass off of it.
Malik Willis' rushing ability was perfect for combating Lions' man-heavy looks
Per PFF, the Lions' defense opted for man coverage on 42.3 percent of snaps entering Week 9, the most by any team. That trend continued against the Packers, inviting a quarterback who can extend plays and take off.
Hampered by a groin issue, Love sat in the pocket and rarely extended plays beyond it. He finished the game with zero rushing yards.
Willis could've extended plays and punished the Lions' defense. He already has a career-best 137 rushing yards with one touchdown this season, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt. While Willis isn't as talented a passer as Love, in a game that required a heavy dose of the run game, his ability to take off could've forced the Lions to move away from their man-heavy tendencies.
Instead, the Lions knew Love wouldn't scramble, allowing them to hold their coverages. It also gave them additional confidence on blitzes, knowing that Love wouldn't be able to buy time—he completed just six of 13 passes for 58 yards and an interception when pressured.
Is Willis a better quarterback than Love? No. Is there any doubt about who should lead the offense moving forward? Of course not. But with Love limited due to injury and facing tough conditions, the Packers should've started Willis and built their game plan around their rushing attack.