The Green Bay Packers' 39-22 loss to the Minnesota Vikings featured a litany of bad mistakes. One of them, however, was doubled down on by head coach Matt LaFleur.
Green Bay led 22-17 when Trey Smack hit a 40-yard field goal to extend the lead to 25-17 on 4th-and-6. However, the Vikings were flagged for offside, and in a controversial moment, LaFleur elected to have the points taken off the board and try to convert a 4th-and-1.
That failed when Jordan Love's quarterback sneak was stuffed. From there, the Vikings would go on to score 22 unanswered points.
On Monday, LaFleur addressed the move and said he was fine with the decision even in hindsight.
"Yeah, I think so. Just trying to push it to a two-score game, and when you're up two scores, that changes the whole complexion of the game," LaFleur said, adding, "Typically, I would say, we're going to be aggressive and go for it on 4th-and-1. Over our history of doing QB sneaks, we've been pretty successful. Unfortunately it didn't work out."
Matt LaFleur's commitment to fourth-down attempt may sound reasonable, but lacks in-game contextual awareness
From an analytical standpoint, LaFleur's decision to go for it does make some sense. A 4th-and-1 is a fairly "easy" down and distance to convert, and the Packers, as LaFleur noted, have had legitimate success doing it at a great clip. Converting the fourth down would've taken the sails out of the Vikings, and scoring from there would've turned a 22-17 lead into a 29-17 or 30-17 lead.
However, in the context of the actual game, it's almost crazy to think that the team would take points off the board. At that point in the contest, the Packers' offensive line had begun slowly but surely giving up more and more pressure and was already struggling to handle Brian Flores and the Vikings' pass rush.
On top of that, a field goal, while keeping it a one-score game, would've increased the lead to 25-17.
While the Vikings did march down the field (thanks to some questionable calls) on the next drive, they theoretically would've only tied the game had the events played out the same. Who knows what happens from there, but the game being 25-25 instead of 25-22 might've changed how the Vikings approached their defensive coverage on the Packers' drive.
Instead, Minnesota's defense could pin its ears back, blitz at will, and take control of the game.
In today's football, there will always be arguments about whether going for it is the right move. While analytics may nearly always favor going for it, it is important to take into account contextual situations in the game.
The allure of going up by multiple scores may have been too great for LaFleur, but by taking points off the board, he instead toppled the first domino that led to the Vikings completely taking the game away from the Packers.
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