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NFL insider's Packers draft prediction could spell doom for Lukas Van Ness

Could be some unlucky numbers in play for the past 13th overall pick...
Green Bay Packers defensive lineman Lukas Van Ness
Green Bay Packers defensive lineman Lukas Van Ness | Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

The Green Bay Packers are not exactly in a position of power or influence in the 2026 NFL Draft, as they don't go on the clock until the second round with the 52nd overall pick. However, this is considered a rather weak, watered-down draft, so the trade for Micah Parsons that cost the Pack their first-round selection looks even more worth it in that context.

Just because Green Bay is picking later, though, doesn't mean the Pack's incumbent starters have guaranteed job security this season. In fact, one past first-rounder in particular could face a legit challenger to his spot.

Probably not hard to piece together who we're talking about here...

Albert Breer's draft analysis for Packers hints at Lukas Van Ness replacement with No. 52 pick

SI.com NFL insider Albert Breer dropped his annual draft needs piece for all 32 teams, and in doing so, he implied that the Packers don't really have a lot of glaring needs. That could culminate in some bad news for 2023 first-round pick Lukas Van Ness, as Breer suggests his successor may be the pick at 52nd overall in Round 2:

"This is one trade out of the first round that certainly worked, even with [Micah] Parsons now coming off a torn ACL. And GM Brian Gutekunst has the roster in a spot where they won't need to press any needs. But it might make sense for Green Bay to dip into the deep edge class at 52, with decision time coming on Lukas Van Ness' fifth-year option and Rashan Gary now gone. Maybe they'd consider someone like Illinois' Gabe Jacas or Michigan's Derrick Moore."

Breer does a fine job explaining the Van Ness of it all. Most Cheesehead fans know the score. Van Ness was the 13th overall pick and hasn't lived up to that billing. He's coming off a foot injury that limited him to nine games last season, and has only 8.5 sacks in 43 career regular-season games to date.

Former NFL safety and ESPN analyst Matt Bowen released a list of draft prospect superlatives, and named Derrick Moore as the best speed-to-power pass rusher in this 2026 class. Moore checked into the Combine just under 6-4 and 255 pounds with 33 3/8 arms. His size, functional strength, and ability to leverage his explosiveness translated to 10 sacks and a 92.4 PFF pass-rush grade in 2025.

Moore's true pass-rush win rate of 36 percent wasn't far behind that of Texas Tech star David Bailey (38.6 percent), a projected top-three pick.

I'm far more bullish on Moore than Gabe Jacas, yet the latter is gaining steam as a possible sneaky first-rounder. DraftKings lists Jacas at 10-1 odds to be drafted on Day 1; Moore is unlisted.

Jacas posted a respectable 88.0 PFF pass-rush grade and had 11 sacks last year, so he's not some scrub. He's about 6-3, 260 pounds, and is just a rugged, gritty player with a relentless motor. Ha! And I used the adjective "rugged" even before reading Lance Zierlein's description on NFL.com. Must be doing something right.

Anyway, I have Jacas rated as the 121st overall prospect, whereas Moore is at No. 48. You can't say I'm afraid to fade the consensus! It's unclear to me why Moore doesn't get more love.

Moore feels like a real upgrade over Van Ness. Jacas is more like a replacement-level LVN with inferior athleticism. You know what? Better yet, he's almost like the happy medium between Van Ness and departed free agent/newly minted New York Jet Kingsley Enagbare.

So among those two choices Breer proposes, I'm Team Moore all the way for Green Bay if the Packers do go edge in Round 2, as opposed to defensive tackle or cornerback.

And yes, I've gotten pushback for suggesting Arizona State's slighter-framed Keith Abney II since the Packers usually go with larger corners. I don't think it matters as much anymore. The Pack have a new defensive coordinator in Jonathan Gannon. Look at the drafted corners Gannon worked with as Arizona's head coach: Max Melton and Denzel Burke are very similarly-sized to Abney, and even short-armed Will Johnson doesn't play as big as his 6-2 stature suggests.

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