The Green Bay Packers hope Lukas Van Ness finally reaches his potential this season. They need him to.
Having passed on the top free-agent pass-rushers and waited until the later rounds of the draft to add depth, Van Ness is penciled in as a starter this season.
That's both exciting and terrifying. The former because it shows Brian Gutekunst truly has confidence in Van Ness and the team's current pass-rush group. The latter? Van Ness hasn't looked close to reaching his first-round potential through two seasons.
And if one prediction for 2025 comes true, our fears may become reality. Matt Clay of ESPN has made stat projections for every team, both on offense and defense. Clay has Van Ness making below four sacks and playing fewer defensive snaps than Kingsley Enagbare.
That's the nightmare scenario.
Packers need ESPN projection to be completely wrong about Lukas Van Ness
It's one projection, and of course, it might be completely wrong. But as we sit here in July without the benefit of training camp snaps to learn from, Clay's prediction is by far the most realistic outcome. It puts Van Ness around the level we've already seen.
The Packers hope it clicks for the Iowa product in Year 3, and he takes a leap. That a second season in Jeff Hafley's system, along with having two years of NFL experience under his belt, will help Van Ness go from bust candidate to reliable starter.
The Packers' pass-rush hopes aren't just on Van Ness' shoulders.
Enagbare may solidify his spot as the starter opposite Rashan Gary, and Gary will hopefully get back to his best after an inconsistent season. If one of the rookies can make an immediate impact (fourth-rounder Barryn Sorrell is the most likely), the Packers will be OK.
But for this team to become serious contenders in the NFC, they need a pass rush that can produce relentless pressure. Van Ness has to be a big part of that. The Packers have rolled the dice at a premium position, and they need their former first-rounder to make an impact.
We can only hope that Clay's projection isn't accurate and Van Ness can far exceed expectations in a make-or-break third season.