The Packers thought they were getting a three-down heavy edge with pass rush upside when they drafted Lukas Van Ness with the 13th pick of the 2023 NFL draft. Now three years on, Van Ness has not lived up to the ceiling they foresaw.
With just 8.5 sacks in his career, his season total has gone backwards from 4.0 in 2023 to 3.0 in 2024 to 1.5 in just nine games last year. Not everything was negative for the former Iowa Hawkeye. Despite playing in just over half the games, he posted a career high in pressures with 27. He also posted an impressive 15.2% pressure rate.
If he can maintain better health in 2026, Van Ness may have a positive trajectory. But the Packers will need to make a decision on their former first rounder this offseason. Green Bay has until May first to decide whether they will exercise the fifth-year option on Van Ness' contract. His option is estimated at $13,752,000.
Lukas Van Ness' value
The best way to determine whether a player is worth their option is to create a hypothetical contract extension by finding comparable players. I'll take a look at his three, two and one-year comps from a database of edge rushers who have signed deals since 2020, and also compare him to recent signings to find a best-fit extension.
From there it will be easy to see if the option is a worthwhile proposition for Green Bay, if an extension is a better avenue, or if they should decline a longer-term pact altogether and make him play out 2026 as a prove it year.
Three-year comps
Player | Games | Sacks/Gm | Press/Gm | Pressure Rate | TFL's | FF | Draft Round | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lukas Van Ness (2023-2025) | 43 | 0.26 | 1.42 | 10.5% | 11 | 1 | 1 | 25.2 |
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (2022-2024) | 49 | 0.24 | 1.92 | 9.5% | 8 | 2 | 1 | 26.3 |
Uchenna Nwosu (2019-2021) | 46 | 0.26 | 1.93 | 11.2% | 10 | 3 | 2 | 25.7 |
K'Lavon Chaisson (2022-2024) | 41 | 0.22 | 1.17 | 9.1% | 6 | 1 | 1 | 26.1 |
Average | 45 | 0.24 | 1.67 | 9.9% | 8 | 2 | 1 | 26.0 |
Cap-adjusting the contracts for Tryon-Shoyinka, Nwosu and Chaisson creates an APY range of $3.25 - $13.75 million with an average of $7.37 million. That's not a strong case for an extension or exercising his option.
Two-year comps
Player | Games | Sacks/Gm | Press/Gm | Pressure Rate | TFL's | FF | Draft Round | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lukas Van Ness (2024-2025) | 26 | 0.23 | 1.65 | 10.8% | 7 | 1 | 1 | 25.2 |
K'Lavon Chaisson (2023-2024) | 32 | 0.25 | 1.34 | 9.3% | 6 | 1 | 1 | 26.1 |
Takk McKinley (2019-2020) | 18 | 0.28 | 2.28 | 11.6% | 3 | 0 | 1 | 25.8 |
Clelin Ferrell (2022-2023) | 33 | 0.21 | 1.61 | 9.7% | 8 | 1 | 1 | 27.3 |
Average | 28 | 0.25 | 1.74 | 10.2% | 6 | 1 | 1 | 26.4 |
This group inspires even less confidence than the last. The average of their cap-adjusted APY's is $4.65 million with a high of $6.30 million.
Platform year comps
Player | Games | Sacks/Gm | Press/Gm | Pressure Rate | TFL's | FF | Draft Round | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lukas Van Ness (2025) | 9 | 0.22 | 2.56 | 15.2% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 25.2 |
Takk McKinley (2020) | 4 | 0.25 | 2.00 | 14.3% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25.8 |
Darrell Taylor (2024) | 16 | 0.19 | 1.94 | 13.8% | 0 | 2 | 2 | 28.4 |
Tyus Bowser (2020) | 16 | 0.13 | 2.06 | 12.4% | 2 | 0 | 2 | 26.3 |
Average | 12 | 0.19 | 2.00 | 13.5% | 1 | 1 | 2 | 26.8 |
Another lackluster group of comps sporting a cap-adjusted high of less than $9.0 million and an average of $6.5 million. None of these benchmarks point to Van Ness being worth the fifth year option value, let alone a long-term extension.
Building on a small sample size
With all of that said, Van Ness capitalized on a defense that added Micah Parsons and improved his pressure rate considerably. If the Packers believe he can keep that up while staying healthier over a larger sample size he could be worth the option and even a longer-term commitment.
That's where I am intrigued. And considering what edge rushers are going for these days, a sub-$14 million option price is a low enough risk that I'd exercise it if I were Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst. Even if Packers insider Jason Wilde doesn't think it will happen. Because as it stands right now my projection for an extension would be two years and $17 million with $12.25 million guaranteed. And there's very little chance either side would see much value in that deal.
This is a pivotal year for Van Ness and his future with the Packers. But it probably won;t be his last.