Lukas Van Ness has failed to reach the expectations placed upon him when the Green Bay Packers selected him with the 13th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. It could leave them with a tough decision.
As a first-round draft selection, the Packers hold a fifth-year option on Van Ness for the 2027 season. However, with his level of play in his first two seasons, declining the option almost seems like a foregone conclusion at this point.
The problem here is that the Packers will have to decide after 2025 what they will do with Van Ness's option — he enters a make-or-break scenario.
If Van Ness finally breaks through and becomes the player the Packers thought they were getting in 2023, exercising it to keep him through the 2027 NFL season is a no-brainer. Who wouldn't want to retain a cost-controlled, blossoming pass-rusher under contract for another season?
Conversely, if Van Ness continues to post similar numbers this season that closely resemble his first two seasons, then it would be a swift and easy decline for Green Bay.
Lukas Van Ness may force the Packers into a tough decision if he fails to deliver again
The impact that Green Bay was looking for simply hasn't been there, and it has put Van Ness into what certainly seems like a make-or-break season in 2025.
In 34 games, Van Ness has just seven sacks and 14 tackles for loss, with 65 total tackles (46 of which are of the solo variety) — not quite what the Packers envisioned when they drafted the former Iowa Hawkeye.
The Packers were hoping to insert a game-changing pass rusher into their defensive equation, but role players and mid-round picks can produce similar results to Van Ness' early-career numbers.
Now, average results can be useful and are an important part of a team's success, but the Packers expected so much more.
Van Ness is yet to start a game for the Packers, appearing in 33% of defensive snaps as a rookie and 39% in Year 2. It's not an ideal scenario to set Van Ness up to produce at the level they want, but on the other hand, he has not forced his way into the starting rotation, resulting in being relegated to backup status.
It's easy to blame the team for not giving him enough in-game opportunities, but at the same time, it is not like he has proven worthy of deserving more up to this point with his lackluster production thus far.
Ideally, Van Ness breaks through this season, and the Packers can use their draft capital and financial resources on other areas of the roster. But if Van Ness continues his path toward becoming a first-round pass-rusher who fails to live up to expectations, the Packers will have to move on. Barring a big Year 3, they will need to find someone capable of providing what the former No. 13 pick is incapable of.