Well, consider this author shocked.
Picking up Lukas Van Ness' fifth-year option always felt unnecessarily risky and a move the Green Bay Packers didn't need to make.
Brian Gutekunst apparently isn't afraid to take that gamble. According to Matt Schneidman of The Athletic, the Packers have exercised Van Ness' fifth-year option. The good news is that it keeps him under contract through the 2027 season, but the risk comes with the fully guaranteed $13.8 million they must now pay him. Let's break it down.
Why Packers picking up Lukas Van Ness' fifth-year option is an unnecessary gamble
The logic is understandable. Gutekunst believes in his young pass-rusher, so adding an extra year of team control makes some sense. His 2027 cap hit will come in far cheaper than if the Packers end up handing him a multi-year extension.
But that's where the logic falls down. Are we sure Green Bay will want to pay Van Ness after this upcoming season?
Nothing to this point suggests he will live up to expectations of a 13th overall pick. Van Ness has played in 43 games across three seasons, starting only two. In that time, he has tallied just 8.5 sacks, 23 quarterback hits, and 61 pressures (per PFF).
Consider that Micah Parsons has only played 14 games for the Packers, but he has 12.5 sacks, 27 quarterback hits, and 79 pressures. All while playing 349 fewer snaps than Van Ness.
That doesn't mean Van Ness can't reach his potential. Per PFF, he posted a career-best 23 pressures last season despite playing in only nine games. His pass-rush grade ranked 46th among 115 edge defenders, while his run-defense grade ranked 20th. That's the promise Green Bay needs to count on.
He will get a bigger opportunity with Rashan Gary gone, although Dani Dennis-Sutton's arrival will crank up the pressure on him for a starting job. Van Ness can also play inside, allowing defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon to get creative.
But it's still a roll of the dice. Van Ness is unproven. Declining the fifth-year option would have been the safer play.
If Van Ness steps up in Year 4 and reaches his potential? Fantastic. The Packers could get to work on a multi-year extension. That'll likely be the outcome if he becomes a star in 2026, even after picking up the option. But what if the opposite is true? What if Van Ness delivers another underwhelming season?
The Packers will have no choice but to eat a $13.8 million cap hit in 2027, and as it's fully guaranteed, the only way to lower that number is by trading him.
Green Bay took a similar gamble with Darnell Savage, and it didn't pay off. It's surprising Gutekunst didn't get creative and figure out an incentive-heavy, one-year extension that benefits both sides. He took that approach with Jordan Love in 2023.
It would've achieved two things. Van Ness gets the added security of an extension, with the potential to earn even more than the fifth-year option if he delivers production. The Packers would've had the protection of not fully guaranteeing the contract up front. Again, it's the approach they took with Love, and he responded by smashing his targets and benefiting from it.
We're all behind Van Ness and hope this is the breakout year. Gary's departure certainly opens the door.
But the Packers now need it to happen. They've taken a risk, and the concern is that it could quickly come back to haunt them.
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