A little over a year ago, Matt LaFleur's Green Bay Packers embarrassed Dan Quinn's defense in a 48-32 wild-card win over the Dallas Cowboys.
Times have changed. Quinn, now head coach of the Washington Commanders, just inflicted a similar defeat to the Detroit Lions, a 45-31 win at Ford Field. LaFleur taught Quinn plenty of lessons in last year's playoff match.
Now, it's time for LaFleur to learn from Quinn.
He has led a complete turnaround for the Commanders, a team that won four games last year and picked second in the draft. Quinn hired Kliff Kingsbury as his offensive coordinator, and the team drafted quarterback Jayden Daniels, who is already one of the league's best.
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Daniels was unstoppable against the Lions, and he deserves all the credit in the world for the Commanders' offensive success. But Quinn's approach is perfect for playoff football. Hopefully, LaFleur was paying attention.
Commanders showed the Packers how to win in the playoffs with aggressive decision-making
There are several reasons why the Packers lost most of their "big" games this season — they went 0-6 against Detroit, Minnesota, and Philadelphia — and Washington picked up key wins over the Eagles and Lions.
Aggressiveness and playing to win are key reasons. Quinn took a fearless approach on Saturday night, repeatedly going for it on fourth down. Washington converted three of its four attempts, knowing it needed touchdowns and not field goals to pull off the upset.
All three conversions led to touchdowns, adding 21 points to their tally. Had they settled for field goals, it would've been just nine, assuming they converted each kick (they missed a 44-yarder in this game). Going for it requires the risk of turning the ball over with no points, but that fearlessness helped the Commanders take control of the game.
This season, LaFleur often took the cautious approach.
Ben Baldwin of RBSDM has a fantastic breakdown of how often teams go for it on fourth down when they should. It considers several factors, including situations when the game is close, and going for it would increase their win probability.
According to the model, Washington ranked third in the league in fourth-down aggressiveness this season, while Green Bay finished 29th.
The data backs up what we saw in the NFC Divisional Round. Quinn was fearless. He played to win, not simply to avoid losing.
The bizarre part is that LaFleur used to have that approach. Between 2019 and 2022, the Packers ranked third in RBSDM's fourth-down aggressiveness model. They have been far less aggressive in the Jordan Love era, especially this season.
That's not how you win big games.
LaFleur has a lot to reflect on this offseason. To win on the biggest stage, you have to be willing to risk losing. The Packers far too often took the cautious approach, but that won't get it done in the playoffs. Just ask Mike McCarthy.
Under LaFleur's leadership, the Packers have previously shown a fearless approach to go for it frequently. The decline began last year and got even worse in 2024.
Quinn and the Commanders reminded LaFleur how it's done.