It's finally time. The Green Bay Packers play in Minnesota in just a few short days, so it's time to finally put aside all the hypotheticals and play some football.
When the Packers take the field on Sunday afternoon, the two teams will look remarkably similar to the ones who battled last year, albeit with a few key changes.
Minnesota managed to retain the services of defensive coordinator Brian Flores, who for the last few years has maintained one of the most unique defensive schemes in all of football. Both franchises return their respective head coaches as well.
The more unfortunate change for Green Bay involves having to hastily remake its rushing attack, for a number of reasons. First, a changeover at running back, due to Josh Jacobs' domestic violence incident*. So the plan in the backfield will involve a lot of MarShawn Lloyd and Chris Brooks (with a smidge of Kaleb Johnson, but I think we'll see less of him this week than we'd hope).
Secondly, the Packers' need to slim down their offensive line group in order to get the "best five players" out on the field has led to speculation that the team would use a lot more zone-running schemes than they have in the past few years. Both Lloyd and Johnson are far more suited for that style of play, and it should suit the offensive line better as well.
Scheme | Plays | First Down Rate | Explosive % | EPA / Play | Yards Per Attempt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zone | 241 | 23.65% | 5.81% | 0.071 | 3.98 |
Man/Gap | 163 | 24.54% | 6.75% | -0.092 | 4.14 |
Last season's rushing attack was nothing to write home about, and the two schemes grade out quite similarly when totaled together. The man/gap plays held a slightly higher yards-per-attempt mark, a marginally higher first-down rate, and a better explosive-play rate (runs of 12 yards or more). But zone was ahead in the all-important efficiency metric of EPA per play.
Why zone-running scheme could be Packers' path to beating Vikings' run defense
Minnesota's defense was an effective run-stopping unit, but showed slightly more vulnerability to zone. In 2025, the Vikings allowed 1.13 more yards per carry, a 3.39 percent higher explosive play rate, and a lower EPA per play allowed (albeit while still keeping opponents in negative EPA territory). On paper, Green Bay's zone scheme does seem like the more favorable matchup for an effective rushing attack.
Green Bay's running backs have their work cut out for them in Sunday's game if the offense wants to keep their attack balanced. Speaking at the locker room on Monday, Lloyd was optimistic about his team's chances and his own abilities.
"A lot of players dont know me. They'll watch my college tape if anything. They won't really know anything about me, they wont worry about me. They will eventually at some point this year," he said.
Given the monumental weight that has been dropped on Lloyd's shoulders over the past few weeks, a little confidence can go along way.
The three-headed monster at RB, with Lloyd most likely seeing a majority of touches in the early going, will try to alleviate the pressure on Jordan Love & Co as best they can. The Vikings game will tell us a lot about how realistic those expectations are, as Green Bay looks to get the season started in a positive direction.
*If you or someone you know is experiencing domestic violence, please reach out to the domestic violence hotline at 1-800-799-7233 or visit thehotline.org.
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