The case for and against AJ Dillon making Packers 53-man roster

Love him or hate him, everyone has an opinion on AJ Dillon these days. Dillon is entering his fifth season in the NFL, all with the Green Bay Packers.

As last season wrapped up, it seemed his days in Green Bay were numbered. His numbers were lower once again from the previous season, the Packers had Aaron Jones under contract, Emanuel Wilson had shown a lot through the preseason, and the team seemed destined to select a running back in one of the first two days of the NFL Draft.

A lot has changed since then.

It was a roller coaster of emotions to start the legal tampering period of NFL free agency. To many people's surprise, Green Bay made a massive splash, inking Josh Jacobs to a contract. Just like that, it seemed the Packers were destined to have the most dynamic backfield in the league. Then came the cuts of fan favorites David Bakhtiari and Aaron Jones, a harrowing reminder that the NFL is a business.

A week later, the Packers re-signed AJ Dillon to play alongside Josh Jacobs and eventually drafted MarShawn Lloyd in the third round of April's draft.

Dillon's contract is team-friendly in and of itself. In short, it's loaded with bonuses, and AJ can more than double his cap hit of $1.125 million if he hits his incentives through the year. Green Bay could, if it chooses to, release him at any point for a small cap hit if he is not performing as the team needs him to.

The case against AJ Dillon making the Packers roster

You may be wondering why this is such a hot topic. The guy is playing on a team-friendly deal, and the Packers have an easy path to move on if he isn't living up to it.

The Packers' first preseason game proved to the haters and doubters that Green Bay needs to give up on Dillon. Against Cleveland, Dillon had four carries for two yards. In a bubble, this follows the trend of the downward trend of production from last season.

Dillon saw action in 15 games last season, starting in six, while Aaron Jones missed time. Dillon rushed for only 613 yards, over 150 yards fewer than the previous season and even fewer than the 2021 season. He also only rushed for two touchdowns, the lowest total since his rookie year. He hit a new career-low in yards per attempt at 3.4.

Perception can be a killer for Dillon. As a larger back, the expectation is that he will be able to ground and pound in short-yardage situations. According to Pro Football Reference, Dillon rushed for 32 first downs, significantly lower than his 2022 total (47) and 2021 (50).

Last, fair or unfair, Matt LaFleur's past, having been an offensive coordinator with Tennessee during Derrick Henry's dominance, put lofty expectations on the Boston College product ever since he was drafted by Green Bay in 2020. Purely on the eye test, some will even say that Dillon rushes too vertically and doesn't lower the shoulder for contact, thus not taking advantage of his frame/size.

The doubters will also point out the amount of time that the guy spends online, streaming himself playing video games as massive hinderance. Silly as it may seem, criticizing a guy for doing something not related to football in his off time, it definitely can be a tough look for a guy who did have a down season.

The case for AJ Dillon making the Packers roster

You may ask yourself, so why would Green Bay want him around then?

Even in the performance against Cleveland last weekend, the numbers were misleading. While he only finished with two yards on his four carries, he did have seven yards after contact. He didn't have a chance behind the Packers' No. 2 offensive line against Cleveland. Compare that to last season, when Dillon only had 1.7 yards before contact.

The Packers' offensive line was a project throughout the year, one that faced loaded boxes as teams tried to make Jordan Love beat them as he was developing.

A deep statistic from his career shows his value. According to Pro Football Reference, since Dillon entered the league, he has the ninth-best success rate among running backs (minimum 100 carries).

Combine all the good on the field with the greatness that AJ brings off the field. He has been dubbed the Mayor of Door County, a neighboring county to the northeast of Green Bay known for small businesses, picturesque views, and cherries. He also frequents high school and UWGB sporting events, supporting local athletes.

Dillon is also known for fundraising through his Twitch streams for local causes, not to mention all the work and community spotlight that he and his wife, Gabrielle, do in Green Bay. Gabrielle is also one of the more prominent Packers wives, notably hosting team events and out-of-town girlfriends/wives of other players.

The bottom line

The injury to MarShawn Lloyd may have bought Dillon time. Matt LaFleur is a big believer in depth at the running back position and has frequently been a vocal champion of Dillon. AJ was very outspoken earlier this week.

"Somebody else go out there and do more than I did. That's football. Sometimes you have a drive like that where a block doesn't happen here, a block doesn't happen there," Dillon told FOX 11. "If you don't live inside my house, your opinion to me is so secondary that I couldn't be bothered with it."

Dillon would likely earn a spot on the team even before Lloyd's injury. His past performance and work in camp definitely warrant him being around this season. A misleading statistical game where he played one drive doesn't necessarily warrant a lot of the backlash the guy gets. Last year's rough season had a lot of caveats to it, and was magnified by the injuries to Aaron Jones, putting incredibly high expectations on the young back.

The trips to Door County and video games are likely here to stay, too, as they should. Professional athletes are people and deserve to enjoy their free time, whether it be a trip up the peninsula or harvesting crops on Farm Simulator. It is a big year for Dillon's NFL career, and he knows the importance of bouncing back.

Dillon took less money to return to Green Bay, a city he loves, and deserves to receive some of that love back.

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