Expect Packers to regress in this 1 key area in 2023
There are many things to point to when it comes to the success or failure for the Green Bay Packers offense this season.
One area of note? Avoiding third down.
Green Bay was the third-best team at avoiding third down last year, but that was with Aaron Rodgers quarterbacking the offense.
Also worth noting is that the Packers were the highest team on this list not to make the playoffs and one of just two inside the top 10 (Atlanta).
best teams at avoiding 3rd down in 2022:
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) June 23, 2023
1. KC*
2. BUF*
3. GB
4. JAX*
5. CIN*
6. NYG*
7. PHI*
8. SF*
9. SEA*
10. ATL
11. DET
12. LV
13. MIA*
14. NE
15. WAS
16. MIN*
17. BAL*
18. DAL*
19. ARI
20. CAR
21. PIT
22. CLE
23. TEN
24. TB*
25. LAR
26. IND
27. DEN
28. HOU
29. NO
30. LAC*…
The Packers had 200 third-down attempts last season with 79 converted attempts, the ninth-fewest in the league. And that was with Rodgers as their quarterback. The inexperienced Jordan Love will more than likely face more third downs this year and the conversion rate may take a nose dive as well.
One area the Packers offense will likely regress in 2023
Green Bay's offense will no longer be on the shoulders of a future Hall of Fame signal caller and instead the weight of the offense's success or failure will be more evenly spread out rather than end up the responsibility of one individual.
This is due to in part to the mass exodus of mainstays on the offensive side of the ball in Green Bay. While not necessarily a bad thing, it is not exactly a good thing either.
The offense is headed in a direction where they will have to play just right in order to have a chance to win, emphasis on chance. The approach will be a bit more methodical than in previous seasons as Matt LaFleur's vision on what he wants to do schematically will finally be revealed.
Essentially, this should lead to longer drawn out drives that will take pressure off the quarterback to play hero ball and be more of a collaborative effort. This can be successful over a short period, but must evolve as times goes on.
Ultimately, the Packers are headed in a direction that will result in more third-down offense. The important thing to keep in mind is not necessarily the volume of third downs attempted, but the rate at which they are converted.
If the Packers are able to convert at a high percentage it would bode well for their chances at putting points up on the board.
More Packers news and analysis
manual