Packers fans' worst Josh Jacobs fears come true in worrying 2024 projection

The Green Bay Packers signed Josh Jacobs to become a difference-maker in Matt LaFleur's offense.

They made the bold decision to release franchise legend Aaron Jones and replace him with the 2022 NFL rushing champion, who is coming off a tough final season with the Las Vegas Raiders.

Green Bay should have high expectations for Jacobs, who is only a year removed from the best season of his career. Last year, he had to play behind a struggling offensive line and in an offense without consistent quarterback play. That changes with the Packers, where a high-level passing offense should lead to lighter boxes.

There's good reason to believe Jacobs can recapture his best form and put together a Pro Bowl year, helping Green Bay's offense reach new heights.

But not everyone is convinced.

Josh Jacobs prediction could mean bad news for Packers in 2024

ESPN's Mike Clay has made his projections for the 2024 season. He has predicted the stats for each player on every NFL team, as well as win/loss predictions and more.

Clay isn't expecting the bounce-back season from Jacobs that the Packers need.

He projects that Jacobs will have 246 carries for 971 yards and seven touchdowns. This would be a disappointing outcome for the Packers, and these numbers are only slightly better than Jacobs' 805 yards and six touchdowns with the Raiders last season. Needless to say, it's a long way off his 1,653-yard, 12-touchdown campaign that earned him All-Pro honors in 2022.

The Packers' offense is more pass-happy than the Raiders', so Jacobs could see fewer opportunities than in years past.

But not in Clay's projections. Jacobs averaged 261 carries per season with the Raiders, and Clay has him rushing 246 times in 2024. The other issue is efficiency. Clay projects Jacobs will average just 3.95 yards per carry, tying the second-worst number of his career. He averaged an impressive 4.9 per attempt in 2022, a number the Packers hope he can come close to this season.

Clay has Green Bay hitting 1,866 yards and 14 touchdowns as a team, good for just 27th in the NFL.

This would be a disastrous return even for a pass-first offense, as the Packers have invested heavily at running back. To sign Josh Jacobs to a big-money deal, draft MarShawn Lloyd in the third round, and bring back AJ Dillon to rank so poorly in rushing yards would hurt the team's chances of making a deep playoff run.

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