Ranking Packers' realistic playoff opponents from easiest to hardest
The Green Bay Packers will almost certainly clinch a wild-card berth in the weeks ahead. Even after the loss to the Detroit Lions last week, it would take a dramatic turnaround for the Packers to fall out of the playoff spots in the final four games of the season.
While they could still win the NFC North, they would need the Detroit Lions to lose all four remaining games. Detroit has a three-game advantage and holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Green Bay.
The Packers haven't clinched a playoff berth yet, but they are close. They will likely end up with the fifth, sixth, or seventh seed in the NFC, sending them on a road trip against a division winner in the first round.
If the season ended today, they would face the Seattle Seahawks on Wild Card Weekend, which is coincidentally the same matchup we'll see on Sunday Night Football this week. Potential playoff preview, anyone?
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Who would be the toughest playoff opponent? We have assumed the Packers will clinch a wild-card berth and face a division winner, including the six most realistic opponents they could meet in the first round.
Packers' realistic first-round playoff opponents, ranked
6. Atlanta Falcons
Losers of four straight, the Falcons fell out of first place in the NFC South in Week 14, and their stock is plummeting fast. However, they only trail the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by one game and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker, ensuring the division race is still wide open.
Atlanta plays indoors in a loud environment, but Green Bay would have nothing to fear in this matchup.
The Falcons have the eighth-worst passing defense and have registered a league-low 19 sacks. The offense isn't helping, either. Kirk Cousins has failed to live up to his huge contract, throwing 17 touchdown passes with 15 interceptions. Over the past four weeks, he has zero touchdowns with eight interceptions.
5. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is another challenging environment to play in, but it's a favorable matchup for Matt LaFleur's team. The Seahawks' offensive line has struggled all season, which is music to Jeff Hafley's ears, as the Packers' pass rush is beginning to heat up. According to ESPN, Seattle ranks 24th in pass block win rate and 30th in run block win rate.
The Seahawks are an inconsistent team, and while their 8-5 record puts them in pole position to win the NFC West, the Packers match up well against them.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It all depends on which version of the Buccaneers turn up. They are the only team to defeat the Detroit Lions this season, and they also handed the Philadelphia Eagles a convincing 33-16 defeat.
At his best, Baker Mayfield can throw for 289 yards and four touchdowns, as he did in Week 1. The Packers know all about that version of Mayfield turning up—he earned a perfect passer rating in Green Bay's embarrassing loss to Tampa Bay last season.
He throws touchdowns but also gives defenses opportunities. Between Weeks 6 and 8, Mayfield threw 10 touchdowns with seven interceptions in a run similar to what we've seen from Jordan Love.
Is this a winnable game? Of course. But could Mayfield and Mike Evans torch the Packers' defense? Absolutely. This wouldn't be easy.
3. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are heating up at the right time. After a slow start to the year, they have won six of their past eight, including a stunning 44-42 victory over the Buffalo Bills last week. Sean McVay's team can beat anybody.
Matthew Stafford is on fire, throwing 10 touchdown passes with no interceptions over the past four weeks. He knows what it takes to win deep in the playoffs. Nobody will want to meet the Rams in the playoffs if they continue to build momentum, and a Round 1 rematch at SoFi Stadium would create a challenging matchup for the Packers.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
A lot has changed for the Packers and Eagles since they met in Brazil in Week 1. Green Bay wondered how it didn't win the game and has come a long way since then, but Philadelphia has, too.
The Eagles haven't lost since September. Saquon Barkley is having an MVP season, rushing for 1,623 yards and 11 touchdowns, and Jalen Hurts is having another excellent year with 29 touchdowns of his own (16 passing, 13 rushing).
Add in a defense allowing fewer yards per game than any other, and the Eagles are one of the league's most unstoppable teams. Rookie corners Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean — who Packers fans hoped to draft in April — have made instant contributions.
The Packers lost a tough game to the Eagles at a neutral venue. A first-round rematch in Philadelphia would be even more challenging.
1. Detroit Lions
The Packers will probably avoid the Lions in the first round of the playoffs, but it remains an outside possibility. Detroit is in pole position for the top seed, which would give it a first-round bye, and even if Dan Campbell's team falls to the No. 2 spot, the Packers would only play them as the No. 7 seed.
We know what to expect in this matchup. The Lions swept the Packers in the regular season, including with a last-second win on Thursday Night Football last week. Detroit doesn't make many mistakes, runs the ball well, and can make any defense look bad.
The Lions are the best team in football and should be a healthier team when the playoffs come around.
The positive? Green Bay came close to winning, and many players have expressed their motivation to win a rematch in the postseason. The Packers proved they can compete with the Lions in a heavyweight matchup, but they'd need to find a knockout punch in this one.