Thursday's NFL schedule release is imminent, and while determining the strength of the Green Bay Packers' schedule or that of any other team can be elusive, it's important to focus on the right data.
Too often, much is made of a schedule's brutality (or lack thereof) based on what happened in the previous season. This despite all the moves made during the league's free agency frenzy and the NFL Draft, which theoretically provide reinforcements in some form or fashion for all 32 teams.
More free-agent moves or blockbuster trades could happen, too. So why the rush to judge? Perhaps because we're about to enter the deadest period of the offseason once these schedules drop.
Anyway, there's a narrative floating around that the Packers have some brutal road ahead in 2026, even beyond the obviously-difficult six NFC North games. Here's why that storyline is a misnomer.
Raw opponent winning percentages don't tell full story of 2026 Packers strength of schedule
Based on a graphic posted to the NFL's official X/Twitter account, the Packers are projected to have the third-toughest schedule by opponent winning percentage from last season (.538). Topping the list are Green Bay's nemesis, the Chicago Bears (.550), and the rebuilding Miami Dolphins (.540).
Before the full schedule is released, take a look at each team's strength of schedule for 2026. 👀
— NFL (@NFL) May 11, 2026
📺: NFL Schedule Release - Thursday at 8pm ET on ESPN/NFLN pic.twitter.com/eChBp3QMVa
The only problem with this strength of schedule metric is that's it's proven, time and again, to not be an accurate predictor of success year-over-year.
Lots of things change in the NFL on an annual basis. Not all the worst teams from last season will still be the worst, and not all the best will remain atop the hierarchy. That's just how it goes in pro football.
A far more precise indicator of strength of schedule is one similarly simple set of data points. The over/under win totals as forecast by the oddsmaker experts in Vegas. That's what Warren Sharp of Sharp Football uses for his annual strength of schedule rankings — and it's far more predictive of how the schedule strengths will actually shake out once the new season ends.
Sharp has the Packers with the fifteenth-hardest strength of schedule in 2026, based on the over/under win totals of Green Bay's opponents.
So the Pack are middle-of-the-pack relative to the rest of the NFL. And that's quite something when you consider Sharp has the NFC North rival Detroit Lions with the No. 1 easiest schedule.
By the way, here's Sharp's explanation for why opponents' prior-year winning percentage is a poor metric to forecast the next season's success:
"From 2010 to 2018, only 5.7% of a team's actual SOS was explained by opponents' prior-year records, and this correlation dropped to just 3.9% in more recent years. Strength of schedule calculations based on prior season records do not effectively predict future team success. For instance, regression analysis showed that only 0.028% of a team's wins could be explained by the traditional SOS metric, with a p-value of 0.79, indicating no statistically significant relationship. This underscores the inadequacy of using past records to forecast future outcomes. In short, traditional strength of schedule doesn't predict anything related to future success."
First off, Green Bay gets to face the entire NFC South, including home games against the Falcons and Panthers. Remember that Carolina won that division with an 8-9 record in 2025. Did either of those teams see drastic improvements personnel-wise this offseason? Not from what I saw.
If the Pack can take care of business in those two games as heavy favorites, and manage a conservative 3-3 split in the division, that's five wins already. Sharp Football's Vegas odds have Green Bay's over/under at 10.5 wins. Almost halfway there without much thought put to it.
I'm bullish on the New Orleans Saints this year, so say that's a road loss in the hostile environment of the Superdome. Are we sure the Tampa Bay Buccaneers aren't on the precipice of collapse? Todd Bowles' seat is hotter than just about any other coach in the sport. Baker Mayfield is entering a contract year. Highly combustible elements abound in Tampa.
Speaking of the aforementioned rebuilding Dolphins, Green Bay gets them at Lambeau Field in the Malik Willis/Jeff Hafley/Jon-Eric Sullivan revenge game. Just kidding. It's not really revenge. It's just Miami trying to emulate the Packers' model in the Southeast.
I envision something more like a 4-2 division record, a 3-1 mark versus the NFC South, and a blowout of the Fins to get Green Bay to eight victories. From there, to hit 10 wins and probable playoff status, it's a matter of going only 2-4 against the following foes:
- Home vs. Bills, Cowboys, and Texans
- Away vs. Jets, Patriots, and Rams
Couldn't the Pack manage one of those home games and take care of business versus the Jets on the road? I reckon they should if they're a serious Super Bowl contender.
Much of how the schedule shakes out depends on where these opponents fall on the slate, and when Micah Parsons returns to the lineup. If the schedule is front-loaded with quality opponents, then maybe it's time to worry. Until then, Cheesehead fans should rest easy and be confident in what lies ahead for this team.
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