Indirect effect on Green Bay Packers playoff hopes: Week 13
By Kenn Korb
Jan 19, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiverGolden Tate
(81) runs with the ball during the 2013 NFC Championship football game against the San Francisco 49ers at CenturyLink Field. Seattle defeated San Francisco 23-17. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports
When you look at these teams, each one stands to have a decent effect on Green Bay’s playoff chances one way or another. Most of it is straight-up for a playoff spot; all four are within a game of Green Bay record-wise. Only two actually play the Packers this year, but those games have been decided; Seattle won in Week 1 while Philadelphia lost in Week 11.
Surprisingly, the one that would seem to have the biggest leg up also happens to be the one that should be worried about the least right now: Seattle. Not only are they behind by a game, but they have the toughest remaining schedule of the four teams here after this week (28-16 combined opponent record).
Dec 29, 2013; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterbackKyle Orton
(18) throws a pass while rushed by Philadelphia Eagles outside linebackerConnor Barwin
(98) in the fourth quarter at AT&T Stadium. The Eagle beat the Cowboys 24-22. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
On the other end, we see the team that Green Bay seemingly has an advantage over being the team with the easiest remaining schedule of the four: Philadelphia. Though they have already lost to Green Bay — and therefore lose the tiebreaker — their schedule is a manageable 21-23 the rest of the way.
According to fivethirtyeight.com, the numbers are close for both matchups here in terms of how they effect the Packers’ playoff chances. To be succinct..they don’t!
Let me rephrase. The two matchups don’t have a significant impact on the actual playoff qualifying..but they do affect the chances of Green Bay garnering either a bye or home-field advantage once they are there.
In terms of this, we see that while there is a pretty negligible difference between the effect these games have on Green Bay’s hopes for home-field advantage (PHI/DAL 2.1% to SEA/SF 2.0%). There is a difference in the effect on a top-2 seed however; Seattle @ San Francisco has zero effect, while Philadelphia @ Dallas carries a 2.2% swing.
Not mountainous, but enough for me to know which matchup to move forward with.