Dec 8, 2014; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterbackAaron Rodgers
(12) looks to pass in the first quarter during the game against the Atlanta Falcons at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
QB – Aaron Rodgers
Last Week: 24/36, 327 passing yards, 3 TDs, 28 rush yards; 27.88 fantasy points
As he always does, Rodgers put on a show for the Packer faithful.
He had another 300+ yard, multi-TD, no turnover day at home that continued a bunch of his extensive record-setting streaks. He led the offense to another quick lead by half, and made enough happen to prevent the Falcons from stealing the game away in their impressive comeback attempt.
This week, things should undeniably be more difficult. For one thing it is a road game, which takes Green Bay away from its friendly Lambeau confines and will probably result in a little less potency. But more than that is who they face.
Dec 8, 2014; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers head coach Mike McCarthy talks with quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) during a timeout during the second quarter against the Atlanta Falcons at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Buffalo has a rugged defense; you don’t have to look at the stats to know that. I mean, they just managed to break a 51-game streak that Peyton Manning had for throwing TD passes. To really get a feel for just how good they are though, I will reference a few.
The main one I’m looking at in particular is Defensive DVOA*, where Buffalo sits at #3 overall. They are also #1 overall in Weighted DVOA** and #1 against the pass. Even against a QB playing as well as Rodgers has this season, that bodes well for what they can be expected to do.
Saying that, I would not worry too much about the passing game; these guys just have a ton of ability and most likely will not get shut down. But it is well within reason to expect a more muted effort than most weeks.
Despite that possibility, you are still starting Rodgers. He’s still the best quarterback in the game today and is surrounded by offensive weaponry that can make plays from anywhere on the field. He’ll find a way to make enough plays to produce a fine day.
Besides…who else would you pick up to replace him anyway? If you’ve got him, he’s your best bet for a good QB performance for your team, even against the best defense out there.
Prediction: 275 passing yards, 30 rushing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT; 21.00 Fantasy Points
*DVOA is a statistic created by Football Outsiders that measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.
** Weighted DVOA gives more value to more recent games (ex.: a game last week will show more evidence of a team’s performance now than a Week 1 matchup, so it holds more importance)