Sep 28, 2015; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers running back Eddie Lacy (27) leaps over Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Josh Mauga (90) in the first quarter at Lambeau Field. Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
RB – Eddie Lacy, James Starks
Last Week …
Lacy – 10 carries, 46 rushing yards, 3 catches, 41 yards; 8.70 fantasy points
Starks – 17 carries, 32 rushing yards, 1 catches, 19 yards; 5.10 fantasy points
Last week, I was expecting there to be a decent split of the carries favoring Starks while Lacy still received some decent work.
I ended up being right on that aspect, but not quite so much with the respective outputs. Lacy did a little better than my expectations, but Starks underperformed despite getting 18 touches. Give credit to the Kansas City defense there; Dontari Poe in the middle and a strong overall unit makes running difficult. But it does show some of the limitations a backfield led by Starks (instead of supplemented by him) has; he isn’t the bowling ball that Lacy is so if he can’t find a way to slash through it could be a difficult time.
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With another (albeit short) week to heal and not getting a huge workload this past week, Lacy should be ready to step back into the lead spot and hold the majority of running back touches again. In those, I expect he’ll do well.
Looking at the DVOA statistics in terms of rushing, the Packers sit as the #9 rushing offense even with the underwhelming overall output last week. San Francisco is currently the #29 rushing DVOA defense, so there should be room to attack on the ground.
The offensive line may not be at full strength with Don Barclay currently in Bryan Bulaga‘s usual right tackle slot, but they have an excellent interior group; Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang are possibly the best guard combo league-wide, and Corey Linsley has continued to improve on his high-rated rookie season (he was Pro Football Focus’ #5-rated center in 2014).
Green Bay Packers running back James Starks. Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports
Behind that group, against a maligned opposing defense, Lacy should have himself a good game and provide excellent balance to the offense.
If something happens injury-wise between now and the game to him though, I think Starks could still be a nice option in this matchup.
Week 4 Prediction:
Lacy – 100 rushing yards, 40 receiving yards, 1 rushing TD; 20.00 fantasy points
Starks – 15 rushing yards, 5 receiving yards; 2.00 fantasy points
Verdict: Load Him Up (Lacy); In Case Of Injury, Break Glass (Starks)