Green Bay Packers: Week 15 Fantasy Profile

Dec 13, 2015; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

QB – Aaron Rodgers

Last Game: 22/35, 218 passing yards, 27 rush yards, 2 TDs; 19.42 fantasy points

Aaron Rodgers may have seemed to us to not be having a great season due to those mid-season offensive struggles, but as usual that is drastically overstated. Even in the fantasy realm, he’s done mostly fine despite his passing game only just now beginning to show signs of waking back up.

Some areas have obviously suffered due to the issues mounted around our QB. His completion percentage sits at its lowest point of any season where Rodgers has been the full-time starter (61.5; 4.0 lower than career average). His yardage total is set to become the lowest of his career for any year where he played the majority of the season (3,175; prorated to 3,908). His passer rating (97.5) is his lowest since his first season as starter (93.8).

And yet even with all that, he still grades out as one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

He sits at #6 in terms of Total QBR* (69.2); only Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson, and Drew Brees are graded higher. He is also ranked #6 by Pro Football Focus’ methods (85.3); Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and Cam Newton are the only players ahead of him there. He is tied for the 4th-most TD passes in the league while having the lowest interception total (5) of any regular starter league-wide.

Remember, all of this positive stuff is despite a litany of problems regarding the rest of his offense too. His running backs have been majorly inconsistent all season. His offensive line has allowed him to be sacked 31 sacks (10th-most league-wide) while dealing with injuries and ineffectiveness. And of course, his receiving corps has been decimated by injuries, drops, and lackluster play that usually leaves Rodgers little chance to complete any passes.

He’s still great everyone, even if he hasn’t always looked the part. With the newfound production in the running game and a defense that finally is acting as not only a compliment but a strength, teams should be afraid.

The running game in particular is what affects my thinking for the fantasy game. With them having their best rushing performance of Mike McCarthy’s tenure last week, the Raiders are likely to load up against the run game. If they do, Green Bay will have opportunities to attack deflated coverages with the passing game and play-action.

I envision a day where this team reminds the league just how dangerous they can be, behind the passing of the reigning MVP cutting up a defense that is too worried about the run game to be able to do much of anything when they need to.

Week 15 Prediction: 300 passing yards, 2 TDs, 15 rush yards; 21.50 Fantasy Points
Verdict: 

*The Total Quarterback Rating is a statistical measure that incorporates the contexts and details of all plays a quarterback is directly involved in and what they mean for wins. Grading is on a 0-100 scale.

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