Green Bay Packers: Predicting 2016 regular season record
By Kenn Korb
Week 11
Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins
A rematch of the playoff matchup last season, this should be an interesting game.
Last time, Green Bay managed to take a victory on the road despite coming in with a flailing offense against a Washington team that had been getting nothing but praise as they elevated themselves to NFC East Champions behind strong play from Kirk Cousins.
This time, Green Bay should be an even better team, while Washington looks like they could be but is more of a questionable assumption.
Washington has plenty of talent on their offense, especially in the receiving game.
DeSean Jackson is a top-tier deep threat still (10 catches of 20+ yards in 10 games for 2015), Pierre Garcon works well as a chain-moving possession guy (9 games with 5+ catches, 43 first downs converted), and Jordan Reed is a top-5 pass catcher at tight end (87 catches, 952 yards, 11 TDs in 2015; 9/120/1 vs Green Bay in playoffs).
They added Josh Doctson to that mix through the draft as well, so Cousins will have a litany of options to choose from when he drops back to pass.
For them to do well, the defense will need to step up; they were only #20 in Weighted Defensive DVOA for 2015, and it was that side which was to blame most often when they lost. Just think: had they been able to consistently cover a flailing receiving corps or stop an inconsistent run game, they could have easily won that playoff game; they did neither however, and put the burden on an offense that could make plays but wasn’t able to field a good presence in the run game.
That defense has received an influx of new talent though, and it should help them do better against opposing passing games.
Their main addition was Josh Norman, an elite-level corner in Carolina who somewhat surprisingly was allowed to leave after they rescinded the franchise tag on him.
Their loss is Washington’s gain though, and putting him with Bashaud Breeland on the outside — combined with the pass-rushing prowess of Ryan Kerrigan — should give teams plenty to worry about when dropping back to throw.
The rest of their defense is still pretty suspect though, and regardless of how well Norman plays a team as loaded on offense as Green Bay can counter.
If Norman is able to succeed in a more man-based coverage scheme, his talents can see him try shutting down Jordy; even if he does, the other receiving options will be set up well to attack elsewhere on the defense, especially across the middle of the field (Washington ranked #21 in DVOA versus tight ends).
This would be a great opportunity to involve Cook and Richard Rodgers more; combine that with another strong showing from the running game (Washington was #22 in Run Defense DVOA in 2015, and gave up 141 yards and 2 TDs to the Packers in the playoffs) and the formula for victory is clear: run the ball, attack over the middle, and shut down the passing game of Washington.
If the secondary doesn’t perform up to par, this could be a high-scoring affair; if they do (as I think will be the case) then the final score could be a repeat of what we saw last time these teams met, but with less of a contest along the way.
Green Bay 33
Washington 20
Green Bay Record: 9-1
Next: Packers vs. Eagles