WRs – Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Ty Montgomery
Week 6 Statistics:
Nelson – 5 catches (7 targets), 68 receiving yards, 1 fumble lost; 4.80 fantasy points
Cobb – 7 catches (11 targets), 53 receiving yards, 1 TD; 11.30 fantasy points
Montgomery – 10 catches (12 targets), 98 receiving yards, 3 rushes, 6 rushing yards, 1 fumble lost; 8.40 fantasy points
When you’re right, you’re right, and I was pretty spot on with my overall thoughts regarding this position last week.
I thought we would see a lesser effort out of Jordy; though he did slightly better in terms of pure statistics, a fumble put him 0.2 points away from my expected fantasy output for him. I thought Cobb would end up as the main focus of the offense; though he didn’t lead the team in receptions, he did receive double-digit targets and had three optimal chances to score if his quarterback had done a better job with his ball placement.
I also said to keep an eye on Montgomery; though I kept my expectations low in my prediction, the gist of my thinking actually ended up underselling him, with Montgomery garnering double-digit catches and leading the team in receiving yardage.
This week, I think we’ll actually see a much more diverse usage of the offensive weaponry at the Packers’ disposal. I could see this being the kind of game where Rodgers makes completions to 10 different people, spreading the wealth and glory, even if Davante Adams cannot play.
These three would be the only receivers to watch for fantasy purposes, however.
Nelson has had a rough couple weeks, with his fumble this past week pairing with drops and tipped balls which caused INTs. He’s obviously still fully finding himself after his knee injury from last season, but he showed through most of this season he can still be productive in the meantime. With his QB needing to discover some level of rhythm to get out of his own funk, he’ll likely look for his favorite receiver a decent number of times even in a spread-it-out mindset; given those chances, I expect Nelson to respond with positive production.
After his own slow start to the season, Cobb has been on a decent roll the past couple games. Against the Giants and Cowboys, Cobb saw 11 targets in each game and combined for 16 catches, 161 yards, and his first TD catch of the year.
His stats were close to being even too: he had a TD catch against the Giants waved off due to off-setting penalties, and then he also had those three different pass plays against the Cowboys which would have been TDs with better throws. He should continue carving out space against the Bears.
Montgomery looks set to be the new #3 option here with another strong week, acting as a dynamic Cobb clone of sorts out there. With only one big game to his name, I’m still somewhat leery of anointing him so soon, but with Nelson and Cobb likely taking the top options on, Montgomery will have the chance to have another huge day.
For now, I would say playing him on your fantasy team only if you need to, but he’s definitely worth picking up at least while he shows us if he is more than a one-game wonder in terms of great production. If he keeps getting some carries in the running game — and actually makes something of them as he receives more — he could become the sort of X-factor to put your team over the top as the weeks go on.
Week 7 Predictions: