Green Bay Packers: Offseason roster cut candidates
By Kenn Korb
Clay Matthews
2016 Statistics
Regular Season (12 games; 476 snaps): 24 tackles (20 solo), 5 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 3 passes defensed
Playoffs (3 games; 156 snaps): 3 tackles (3 solo), 1 sack, 1 forced fumble
PFF* Rankings: 43.6 (overall), 52.7 (pass rush), 39.0 (run defense), 64.1 (coverage)
Contract Details**
Remaining Length/Cost: 2 years/$26,475,000 remaining
Potential Cap Gain/Dead Money: $10,975,000/$4,100,000
In name, this will probably (definitely) sound like hot-take insanity. I mean, this is Clay Matthews, one of the prime examples since the day he was drafted which people have pointed to when the subject of pass rushers comes up. He’s had double-digit sacks in four of his eight seasons, forcing over a dozen fumbles and picking up a half-dozen interceptions along the way as well. He’s shown the ability and leadership to step away from his best position and play elsewhere when the team has needed him to, and played through an assortment of injuries and maladies throughout his career to be effective. He’s been a one-man pass-rushing monstrosity for long stretches of his time with Green Bay, and teams have to gameplan against him specifically.
Still, much has changed in recent times, and his impact isn’t near as dominant as many may still believe.
After being one of the best in the league at getting to the quarterback during his first six years, that effectiveness has evaporated. Between 2009-2014, PFF graded him out above 80 in their metrics five different times, with three of those seasons grading him as a high-quality performer.
The past two years, it’s been a different story. 2015 was a step down in quality from what we’d come to expect from him, but that came in a season where he spent the year playing out of position (handling the role of ILB rather than his usual OLB pass-rushing role) and was able to get on the field for over 1,000 snaps (1,017, to be exact).
This season, he couldn’t stay healthy to a startling degree (under 500 snaps — less than half of the team’s season total — for the first time in his career) and was dramatically ineffective when he did manage to get on the field.
His 5 sacks were the lowest season total he’d ever produced, and for only the second time ever he could manage just a singular combined forced fumble/interception (the other time? 2012, which he somewhat offset through his 13 sacks in 12 games). During games, I clearly remember having to ask myself if he was even playing, and honestly it would’ve likely been better if he hadn’t; backup tackles such as Ty Nsekhe (Washington) were holding a seamless blockade against him as if they were David Bakhtiari on every pass blocking snap.
When it comes to determining whether to cut him, it isn’t cut-and-dry. When healthy, he can still be a top-tier pass rusher who could make game-changing plays. When going by PFF grades, this season stands out more as a sore spot than a trend (so far), and if he can stay on the field at a rate more in-line with his career averages, it wouldn’t be a stretch to think he’d be able to return to some level of his still-recent dominance on the field.
That’s all undoubtedly worth the large contract he’s on, but there’s enough evidence to think this is a smart time to step away too.
As Matthews ages, the injury problems as a whole are unlikely to go away. His relentless style of play off the edge has slowed him and damaged his effectiveness at other points in his career, but with his advancing age he may be unable to not only effectively play through those maladies as they crop up, but also take a longer period of time to recover from them. His overall speed and power might be taking a permanent step down as well, one that isn’t directly connected to injuries (meaning: one which he cannot really regain).
To be clear: I DO NOT expect the Packers to make this sort of drastic move. Matthews is surpassed only by Rodgers in terms of his cap hit, and the next-closest cap hit on the defense comes in the form of Mike Daniels’ contract (a full $5 million less than Matthews). This year does also overall rank as more of an anomaly than a trend based on the evidence we have to work from.
The Packers have often proven under Thompson’s leadership to be unafraid of making the unpopular move if they believe it to be the correct decision for the franchise, however. The foresight of the majority of his moves during his tenure leading Green Bay has been proven to be smart more often than not, and that includes cutting bait with guys fans love even if they might still have something left in the tank. If Thompson decides the health and age concerns which are indisputably connected to Matthews now outweigh what he can still provide Green Bay (and at the price he’s currently set to make for those services), Clay can and will be gone.
I doubt that will end up ultimately being the case, but it can’t be denied that this sort of consideration is a possibility.