Packers vs. Falcons: Who wins NFC Championship rematch and why?
Why the Packers Will Win
Student body right with the Stanford Sparkplug
One thing that last week’s victory over Seattle definitively proved is that Green Bay’s backfield belongs to Ty Montgomery, who played 74 of 82 snaps along with securing 19 of the 21 carries at the running back position.
There’s little sense in still referring to the third-year pro as a “converted receiver” with the way he has embraced lead back duties by running with an even greater sense of decisiveness and physicality in 2017.
While Montgomery ran hard and scored one of two Packers’ touchdowns in Week 1, his production was hard fought, as evidenced by the fact that his yards-per-carry average was under three.
Yards should be easier to come by against an Atlanta run defense that missed “double-digit” tackles in their opener, according to head coach Dan Quinn.
In their road win versus Chicago, Atlanta defenders were often caught overpursuing plays or taking bad angles.
So, while the likes of Deion Jones, De’Vondre Campbell and Duke Riley form one of the faster linebacker units in the league, they aren’t always technically sound when it comes to wrapping up the ball carrier.
Look for Montgomery to have success on second-effort runs considering that the Falcons allowed the second-most yards per carry after first contact in 2016.
The Stanford product should also see some touches in the passing game when you factor in how Bears’ running backs Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen caught 11 passes out of the backfield.
Wayward son returns to the lineup
Second-year man Geronimo Allison’s return to action after a one-game suspension means the opposition will have yet another game-breaking weapon for which they’ll need to account.
Allison made his regular-season debut in last year’s Week 7 road loss to the Falcons and he should play a bigger role this time around.
The Tampa native is bigger and stronger than he was as a rookie and showed as much in the preseason by displaying the ability to power his way through the first tackle to gain extra yardage after the catch.
Mike McCarthy acknowledged the young wideout’s year-two ascent by pointing out how Allison is currently playing with much more confidence while also noting the 23-year-old’s versatility to play all four wide receiver positions.
As a bonus, the Packers should also benefit from Allison’s leaping prowess on jump throws in the middle of the field or fade routes near the goal line.
The 6-foot-3 pass-catcher recently acknowledged that he’s now keeping his “eyes up” in the interest of making tacklers miss and getting upfield as quickly as possible.
Both Jeff Janis and Trevor Davis will be taking a back seat to Allison, who assumes the WR4 role in the offense.
Dropping the gauntlet
The Bears not only hung in with the Falcons through four quarters last Sunday, but they nearly pulled off a come-from-behind upset versus last year’s Super Bowl runner-ups.
One of the ways John Fox’s team was able to accomplish that feat was by shutting down Atlanta’s running game by limiting Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman to 53 yards combined.
Bears’ defenders were able to win their battles in the trenches, particularly against second-year right guard Wes Schweitzer, who couldn’t hold up as both a run blocker or in pass protection.
He gave up three pressures, a sack and a quarterback hit, along with failing to get any sort of push in the ground game, especially when he was matched up with Akiem Hicks.
His job won’t get any easier with both Mike Daniels and Kenny Clark on the other side of the line.
Daniels, in particular, dominated Seattle’s interior blockers in Green Bay’s season opener.
The goal here will be making the Falcons’ a one-dimensional team, which would dilute the play-action game that can be virtually impossible to stop once Ryan gets in rhythm.
Why the Falcons will win
Can’t catch the mismatch
Dom Capers’ plan to contain Julio Jones in the regular-season meeting involved Ladarius Gunter shadowing the all-world receiver with lots of help from Haha Clinton-Dix over the top.
One of the ways the Falcons have been able to free up No. 11 versus that type of bracket coverage is by having Jones run a variety of crossing routes out of the slot.
The offshoot of that kind of strategy is that it often opens up the middle of the field by allowing the running backs running underneath patterns to get singled up versus inside linebackers.
Does this mean that Joe Thomas will see more action than both Blake Martinez and Jake Ryan?
Yes, but Thomas alone doesn’t solve that threat. The former undrafted free agent can provide better coverage than his fellow inside linebackers, but he’s been hit or miss versus both running backs and even fullbacks in recent times.
With Clinton-Dix playing deep and Morgan Burnett presumably defending the tight end, this could be an opportunity for Josh Jones to see the field a lot more than he did the previous week.
The rookie safety can run and hit, but his inexperience could also lead to missed tackles.
One or two long passing plays to Freeman or Coleman could be the difference in this game.
The sidekick shimmy
The issue with dedicating so much effort in defending Jones in both games last year was the fact that the Packers didn’t have the corners to keep Atlanta’s complementary receivers under wraps.
Mohamed Sanu became the focal point of the passing attack in the regular-season encounter by hauling in nine receptions for 84 yards, including a game-winning 11-yard score.
Taylor Gabriel was no slouch either, as he was on the receiving end of a 47-yard touchdown.
The NFC Championship was more of the same with Sanu continuing to torment Green Bay’s defensive backfield to the tune of five grabs for 52 yards and a score.
Davon House is the new kid on the block and should be matched up with both receivers at various points of the ball game.
The former Jaguar didn’t acquit himself very well against the Seahawks both in run support, where he failed to set the edge against Chris Carson, and in pass defense, where he became too handsy with Carson and earned a holding penalty.
This time around, House won’t benefit from the front seven pulverizing a bottom-of-the-barrel offensive line, as was the case in Week 1.
The long-limbed 6-foot corner is known for his physical style of play, but he can’t be giving away free yards to a team that can easily put up 40 points.
Winning the fight on the right
As of press time, no one can confidently predict whether Bryan Bulaga will be ready to return to the lineup in his customary right tackle spot.
Kyle Murphy was serviceable in Bulaga’s stead, but his heavy feet showed up on a first quarter Cliff Avril sack in which the defensive end exploded past the young bookend untouched.
How will Murphy hold up with coaching staffs becoming more familiar with his technique and tendencies?
It remains to be seen, but what isn’t a mystery is the Falcons’ firepower off the edge in the form of Vic Beasley, Brooks Reed and rookie Takk McKinley.
And it’s doubtful if Murphy will get much of a helping hand from right guard Jahri Evans, who was last seen being flagged twice on holding calls in his nightmare matchup with Sheldon Richardson, who also picked up multiple pressures versus the grizzled veteran.
In closing …
Don’t be surprised to see a repeat of last year’s 33-32 shootout on the fast track of the newly-built Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Getting Allison back in the lineup ensures that the Falcons won’t have enough man power to stop Green Bay’s revamped weaponry.
By the same token, Hooper’s development at the tight end position gives the Packers’ secondary something else to account for with Ryan and friends determined to make amends for their ugly win at Soldier Field.
There’s no reason to believe that both offenses shouldn’t be able to go up and down the field and gobble up plenty of points along the way.
It bears restating that newly-appointed offensive coordinator (Steve) Sarkisian is still getting comfortable with his play-calling duties and how to best utilize his talent.
Expect the Falcons to look much sharper in Week 2, but not enough to match the well-oiled machine that is Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers-led attack.
But, yes, there will be some nail-biting going on for Cheeseheads watching at home or making the trip down south.
The Packers will need some sort of late-game pass deflection, fumble recovery or sack to seal a win in the closing minutes. But look for them to get their revenge in a game that may very well decide who gets home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Prediction: Packers 35 Falcons 33