Best sports gambling bets for Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay Packers, Aaron Rodgers (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
Green Bay Packers, Aaron Rodgers (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /

The Green Bay Packers are coming off a huge win over the Bears and last week’s pick was a winner.

Week 1 is always tough to pick in the NFL. There wasn’t any information on the Packers and we had nothing to go off while picking except for preseason showings. Luckily, we saw a familiar opponent in Chicago and it made for a nice, confident, and winning pick. The Bears are a completely new team, but I knew the game would be competitive.

I advised staying away from the line last week because the number was big and it would be too difficult to pick a side in such a tight game. The total is what I picked, and I loved the under. It came in just beneath 47.5 at 47. But a win is a win, and we’re off to a great start.

This week’s game is against another familiar opponent, the Minnesota Vikings. Let’s break it all down and make some picks.

Please remember to always play responsibly. Do not wager any money you do not have and do not take anything I say here or in the future as fact. No bet is guaranteed. I do not personally gamble on sports, I only entertain the concept as an additional way to enjoy and discuss sports. I do not encourage gambling.

The Spread

The Packers opened as 2.5-point favorites, but the line has since gone down to only 1.5 in favor of Green Bay. I feel the trend may continue as the week unfolds and we might only see the Packers giving a point, or worse, the game becoming a pick where there is no spread and no favorite.

The Packers won what might be called a miracle. Aaron Rodgers led an incredible fourth-quarter comeback against the Bears. The defense stepped up huge and every big play went Green Bay’s way in the second half. As great as the game was, I don’t think it swayed the public. The line changing is reflecting money coming in on the Vikings, which increases value for the Packers.

Mike Zimmer has been the coach in Minnesota since 2014. Since then, the Vikings have played the Packers eight times with the series being split 4-4 in that time. The kicker is, the average margin of victory in those games is 13 points. Even if you take out last year’s two losses without Rodgers, and the 2014 matchup the Packers won 42-10, the margin is still over eight points.

With as good as these two teams are, and as close as the game is supposed to be, it’ll still likely go heavily to one side or the other. That’s just history. Mike McCarthy and Mike Zimmer are two of the best coaches in the league and will read and react to each other. But whichever coach has the edge early probably has it for the game.

The Total

This total is slightly less than last week’s and sits at 46. Taking into account the last eight matchups since Zimmer was hired in Minnesota, the under would have won in six out of the eight games.

The Vikings have one of the best defenses in the NFL and the Packers looked like a pretty strong defense last week once it settled in. The Bears scored twice on their first two drives, but the Packers D only gave up two field goals the rest of the game.

Regardless of what you think about Aaron Rodgers, he’s going to have a sore knee and facing an even better defense in Week 2. Kirk Cousins played well last week, but the Vikings are facing a better defense as well.

Usually, when it makes so much sense to take a side like this, it means you’re wrong. Not for any reason in particular other than sports gambling is cruel and heartless. You’re just wrong. But I’m not going to let that scare me away from what I think is going to be a low-scoring, defensive battle.

The Play

Official play: Play the money line, under 46.

I don’t like not picking against the spread for a second-straight week, but it just feels like the spread will creep closer to a pick game and history suggests these two teams won’t play into tight battle like that. I like the Packers to win, but not enough to place a wager. If the Packers do win, and if it’s anything like recent matchups, it’ll be by about a touchdown and the line won’t be relevant.

I feel more confident in the under this week. A final score like 21-14 seems very realistic, and that would go way under. The game is in Lambeau again this week so the fans will be backing the Packers, preventing Minnesota from potentially running away with anything.

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With a hobbled Rodgers, I feel it’s best if the Packers plan to win with defense again and timely offense from the best quarterback in the league. A shootout is unlikely, and so is the over.