Best sports gambling bets for Green Bay Packers vs. Buffalo Bills

Green Bay Packers, Aaron Rodgers (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Green Bay Packers, Aaron Rodgers (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

The Green Bay Packers are coming off a disappointing week and host one of the worst teams in the league.

The Packers head back to Lambeau Field for the third time in four weeks after a miserable loss in rainy Washington. The defense surrendered 28 points in the first half before settling in, but it was too much for a sloppy offense to overcome.

The picks last week went 1-1. The Packers obviously lost and did not cover 2.5 points. The over, however, that looked like a lock once Aaron Rodgers led the Packers down the field on the first drive of the second half, still needed one more score to break through.

Poor offensive play in the second half made it stressful but Washington’s field goal with less than two minutes left in the game finally pushed it over.

The spread was a different story. It was a massive swing and miss on my behalf. I thought the Packers defense would play more like its second half self (that only gave up a bogus field goal) for the entire game.

The offense looked sharp outside of all of the dropped passes but those drops were just too much to overcome. Seriously, four drives ended with drops on third or fourth down. It was ugly but the Packers could have still won that game. In the end, I went against a home underdog and got bit.

This week the Bills head to Lambeau hot off a win in Minnesota. A win in which they were 17-point underdogs. It was a historic upset. Leave it to the Vikings to be on the wrong side of that history.

I’m going to make some rash judgments in strong favor of the Packers this week. I still have faith in this team as long as Aaron Rodgers is out there. Hobbled or not, he can still make things happen like nobody else in the history of the sport.

Please remember to always play responsibly. Do not wager any money you do not have and do not take anything I say here or in the future as fact. No bet is guaranteed. I do not personally gamble on sports, I only entertain the concept as an additional way to enjoy and discuss sports. I do not encourage gambling.

The Spread

The Packers opened this week as 10.5-point favorites and that line has since dropped to just 10 in most places. This isn’t a sharp move in favor of the Bills, but if the line is going to move any direction it’ll probably continue to go down.

I can’t imagine more action comes in on the side of the Packers, who just stunk the place up in Washington, over the Bills, who just wiped the floor with a Super Bowl contender in their own home.

The Packers are a very public team, meaning casual bettors are more likely to just throw bets on them without much thought. This usually draws a slightly skewed line from Vegas and makes it a bit higher than it should be. Off a bad loss, I think that casual action will halt for the time being.

I don’t mind the line at 10, but I like it better at 9.5 or less. It’s going to be difficult for the Bills to go beat up on two powerful NFC North teams in consecutive weeks. The Bills just aren’t that kind of team.

The Total

The total sits at 45.5 again, unchanged from last week’s matchup for Green Bay. The Packers managed to help the total go over last week because the defense let up a ton of points. I don’t expect that to happen at home facing Josh Allen. On the flip side, the Packers offense should be much cleaner and score more points of its own. It better.

Buffalo’s offense isn’t anything special and I think being shut out in the second half against the Vikings proves that. Putting up 27 in the first half is impressive but it’s surely a fluke. Would you bet on that kind of showing from the Bills again?

It’s all about how much you think the Packers can score here because I don’t trust the Bills one bit. I think the Packers will control the game but they aren’t in the business of running the score up on anybody right now.

The Play

Official play: Packers -10, under 45.5

A final score of 27-14 seems like a best case scenario for both teams and is coincidently what Oddsshark has predicted as well. The Bills don’t get slaughtered and the Packers finally win a game comfortably.

If this one goes sideways for Green Bay it’ll be due to the defense letting up a ton of points again. That’s possible, but not likely. I just don’t see Rodgers and the offense struggling as mightily as it did in Washington.

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Taking the favorite to cover such a large spread and the under is a difficult spot to be in. The possibility of a backdoor cover is very real. A garbage time touchdown from Buffalo in a 27-14 game ruins both picks here.