Best sports gambling bets for Green Bay Packers vs. Washington

The undefeated Green Bay Packers are currently 1-0-1 heading into their first road matchup of the season.

I only made one play for the Packers against the Vikings last week and it was a loser. I chose under the total of 46, and it looked alright until a second-half scoring explosion helped the total go way over. I had more faith in the defenses than I should have.

I passed on the spread because I thought the game would be too one-sided, as it had been in so many previous matchups. The Packers looked like they were in control for pretty much the entire game until Davon House got burned by Stefon Diggs for a 75-yard score. That changed everything.

I passed on picking against the spread in the first two weeks because I didn’t have a great feeling either way. This week I have a pick.

Before sports gambling became as popular as it is today, there used to be a golden rule that was almost foolproof. Home underdogs were money. The public often chose the better team as the favorite, but the sharps in Vegas knew better than to pass up on a home team getting points.

This week, that same thinking applies to the Packers as they go visit the Washington football team. The smart bet would be to take Washington and the points, but it’s 2018 and the public has grown used to this golden rule. Vegas has adjusted accordingly and begun setting its lines differently. Taking home underdogs is no longer a surefire way of cashing out.

Please remember to always play responsibly. Do not wager any money you do not have and do not take anything I say here or in the future as fact. No bet is guaranteed. I do not personally gamble on sports, I only entertain the concept as an additional way to enjoy and discuss sports. I do not encourage gambling.

The Spread

Green Bay opened as a 2.5-point favorite over Washington and the line has gone up to 3 in some places. If you like the Packers, it’s fairly easy to find the spread at 2.5. At this low of a number, that’s a valuable half of a point.

I’m not sure what the public perception is of the Packers, but I know what mine is. I watched a hobbled Aaron Rodgers put together impressive drives and point totals against the Bears and Vikings, two of what might be some of the top five defenses in the league. Washington’s defense is laughable compared to the units from Chicago and Minnesota.

The Packers should be able to score well this weekend. If it took four drives ending in field goals, plus a miss at the end of regulation, to get to 29 against the Vikings, 30 is easily obtainable for the Packers this weekend.

When Green Bay is on defense, it’ll see its easiest matchup yet. Alex Smith is light years better than Mitchell Trubisky at the quarterback position, but that’s about where the comparisons end for Washington and Chicago.

The skill position players, the coaching, and the scheme that Mike Pettine and his defense will see Sunday are all much easier to tackle than Chicago’s. And certainly easier than Minnesota’s.

I’m already forgetting the idea that the Packers might lose this game. It’s just a matter of how much they’ll win by. I think multiple scores wouldn’t surprise anybody. We’ve seen Washington play well against a very poor Arizona team, and lose last week to the Colts, at home, without scoring a touchdown. I’m not exactly concerned they’ll keep this one within a field goal.

The Total

This week’s total again drops for the Packers and sits at 45.5, down a half-point from last week’s total of 46. If the Packers are going to be scoring into the 30’s as I expect, then all it’ll take for Washington to help hit the over is two touchdowns.

They failed to find the end zone last week, but this is still an NFL team with a proven quarterback. I think two touchdowns is doable for Washington.

Some inclement weather is in the forecast and could hurt the chances of this game getting too high-scoring. I would worry a bit more about that if either of these teams didn’t play outdoors in northern cities though. Both are led by tough quarterbacks who won’t be affected.

The Play

Official play: Packers -2.5 (find that half of a point), over 45.5.

The Packers should have a noticeable advantage in the trenches this week, plus they’ll have the far superior offense and quarterback. The writing is on the wall for this one to be a comfortable win. As Packer fans, we need a break from the tight finishes anyway.

The total isn’t something I feel overly confident about, but I think Alex Smith will be able to put together enough points to help get there. It’s also not entirely impossible if the Packers just score into the 40’s themselves.

I feel like the Packers aren’t getting the respect they deserve after strong showings against the Bears and Vikings. Washington could be one of the worst teams in the league when it’s all said and done. The Packers will take care of business here and continue their undefeated season.