Packers: What is the floor for Green Bay in 2019 season?

What is the Green Bay Packers’ floor in the 2019 season?

If Aaron Rodgers is healthy, the Green Bay Packers have a chance to compete for a championship next season. But what is the team’s floor?

Of course, a season-ending injury to Rodgers in Week 1 would effectively end their playoff hopes, but what about if the two-time MVP is healthy for all 16 games?

Unfortunately, we’ve seen the Packers reach that level the past two seasons. After making the playoffs eight seasons in a row, they’ve now gone two without playing postseason football. The bigger concern was that their record actually got worse in 2018 after a 7-9 finish in 2017 without Rodgers for nine games.

The hope is that under a new head coach, and with the right offseason moves, this team can successfully complete a mini-rebuild and return to the playoffs in 2019. And that’s possible. It’s not out of the question that the Packers win the NFC North, secure a first-round bye and represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. When Rodgers is at his MVP-best, Green Bay can beat any team.

But as proven in recent seasons, it doesn’t always go to plan. Making a change at head coach comes with some risk. Matt LaFleur will bring a new offense to Green Bay, and that will take some time.

Rodgers has played his entire NFL career in Mike McCarthy’s system, and he now needs to adapt. And he’ll also need to get on the same page as his receivers. LaFleur, too, is new to the role and will make mistakes.

Playing in a strong division, a slow start could put the Packers in a difficult position early on.

If Rodgers is healthy this team will win games. Especially at home. I don’t think the Packers will be picking inside the top-five of the draft any time soon. But even with Rodgers, there’s no guarantee of a playoff run.

If it takes time for the offense to get going with a new play-caller and head coach, the Packers could miss out on their playoffs. Like last year, their floor is around six wins.