Packers: Behind enemy lines before 49ers divisional-round game

On Saturday night, the Green Bay Packers host the San Francisco 49ers in the divisional round.

To learn more about the Packers’ playoff opponents, we spoke to Peter Panacy, site expert for Niner Noise.

How have the 49ers turned things around this season? What similarities are there to the 2019 team? How can the Packers win this matchup?

Late in October, the 49ers had lost four straight and their playoff hopes appeared to be slipping away. What has changed?

PP: It’s hard to put one reason behind everything, and it felt like the Niners were figuring out new ways to lose each week. But we were lucky enough to have fullback Kyle Juszczyk on the Niner Noise Podcast just before things turned around against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 10, and he pointed out how the ebbs and flows of a season (even just one game) can change everything. San Francisco had the talent, and we all knew that, but it all needed to come together in one way or another.

But, if I had to bank on a small hunch, I think it had something to do with the 49ers going back and forth between quarterbacks Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance. Once that in-game switching stopped, San Francisco turned things around.

Packers fans still have nightmares about the 2019 NFC Championship Game. How does this 49ers team compare to the 2019 team?

PP: There are plenty of similarities and differences. The 49ers are going to be a run-first, run-often team. That’ll be dangerous against a Packers team that was tied for third worst in the NFL during the regular season, allowing an average of 4.7 yards per rush. But running back Raheem Mostert, who ran for 220 yards and four touchdowns that game, has been out almost all year long and is out of the question. But his absence has been accounted for by rookie runner Elijah Mitchell, who has been impressive, and All-Pro wide receiver Deebo Samuel.

There aren’t the veteran cornerbacks, though, and Richard Sherman is now with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Niners pass defense has been surprisingly good in 2021 despite the roster deficiencies, but San Francisco’s secondary is no longer the lockdown unit it once was two seasons ago.

Which under-the-radar 49ers players should Packers fans be aware of ahead of this game?

PP: It’s easy to call out the household names like Samuel, tight end George Kittle and even wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk to a certain degree.

But if there’s one player I can single out as someone worth watching, at least on offense, it’s second-year wide receiver Jauan Jennings. He might not get a ton of targets in any given game, but each one of his catches seems to be a money grab, either on a 3rd-and-long play or in the red zone. He’s been a nice storyline this season.

On defense, defensive end Arden Key’s turnaround from a former Las Vegas Raiders NFL Draft bust has been fun to watch. He’s been a pass-rushing force behind EDGE Nick Bosa this season.

How can the Packers find success against the 49ers?

PP: San Francisco is going to want to run the ball, but it’s not exactly set up for a lot of 3rd-and-long success. True, the Packers haven’t been great at stopping the run. But a loaded box with five defensive linemen and two linebackers plugging the interior gaps could force more of those 3rd-and-long situations. If Green Bay cuts down on sizable gains on first and second downs, forcing quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to throw more, it’s danger for the Niners.

Typically, the 49ers want Jimmy G to throw no more than 20 to 25 times per game. If he has to do more, that’s troublesome. And if Garoppolo is forced into a shootout with quarterback Aaron Rodgers, it’s trouble.

What’s your prediction for the game? Who moves on to the NFC Championship Game?

PP: It would be fun to be a homer in this game and cite the Niners running rampant against Green Bay as they did two seasons ago. But it’s a different context now, namely the game being at Lambeau Field and the Packers enjoying an extra week off for rest and preparation. Those X-factors matter a lot even if San Francisco matches up well against Green Bay, offensively.

We’ve got the 49ers losing 30-24 in this game, but the Niners effectively are playing with house money now, already having made the playoffs and winning a postseason game after all those struggles earlier in the year. It’d have to be considered a successful season from San Francisco’s vantage point.

We could be wrong, though, of course.