There aren't many hype trains as out of control in the NFL right now as the Chicago Bears' hype train. The Bears have only lost one game so far this season, and have won three games with three different starting/primary quarterbacks. Their running game is dominating. The defense is improved. Ben Johnson is looking like a Coach of the Year candidate...
The Green Bay Packers are going to do everything in their power to derail this hype train and infuse some doubt and negativity into the Bears' fan base in Week 5.
While it certainly hasn't been a picture-perfect season so far for the Packers, they would love nothing more than to rain on Chicago's parade, and we have some bold predictions for how they could make that happen.
Here are three bold predictions for the Packers on Sunday as they look to upend the Bears.
3 bold predictions for the Packers in a huge Week 5 matchup against the Bears
1. Packers defense holds Bears rushing attack to lowest total yet
Through the first four weeks of the season, no team in the NFL has run the ball better than the Chicago Bears.
The Bears rank 1st in the NFL in rushing attempts (159), rushing yards (785), 2nd in rushing touchdowns (9), and 4th in yards per carry (4.9). Both Kyle Monangai and D'Andre Swift rank in the top 8 of the entire NFL in rushing yards individually. They have more yards before contact (471) than any team in the NFL, indicating their scheme is opening up the run game better than any team in the NFL so far.
And the Packers are going to shut it down on Sunday.
All of those numbers provide context -- the Bears' rushing attack is as impressive as it is efficient. The Packers' run defense? Not so much. They rank 28th in rushing yards allowed and 17th in yards per carry allowed.
This is a matchup that favors the Bears, but the Packers will be keying in on the Bears' run game, especially with backup Tyson Bagent starting again this week.
Chicago's lowest rushing total so far this season -- even in just a 4-game sample -- was 128 yards against the Eagles two weeks ago (Case Keenum's start).
Against the Packers, I'm setting the over/under at 127.5 and taking the under. This will be Chicago's lowest rushing output yet.
2. Packers dominate 3rd downs...on both sides of the ball
Third down has not been kind to the Packers this season.
They rank dead last so far this season in 3rd down efficiency -- 26.1 percent offensively -- and 29th in the league in 3rd down defense (48.2 percent).
As you may have already guessed, the Bears rank very high in both categories. They are the 6th-best 3rd-down offense so far this season and the 2nd-best 3rd-down defense. There is really no reason to believe the Packers are going to be able to turn things around this week given the matchup, but that's what makes the NFL so much fun every week.
Things can flip on a dime.
And that's one of the shots I'm calling here. The Packers' 3rd-down conversion rate offensively is, well, offensive. Less than 30 percent with a quarterback as talented as Jordan Love, and playmakers like Tucker Kraft, Christian Watson, and Matthew Golden?
Those guys are going to realize how good they are and prove it against the Bears. And the defense will follow suit.
3. Kaleb Johnson scores 2 TDs
If you're looking for one area of glaring weakness so far on the Chicago Bears' defense, it's their run defense.
Will this game be a "get-right" game for Green Bay's struggling rushing attack, or will it be a get-right game for a struggling Bears run defense?
I'm going with the former.
The Packers haven't had any real answers in the absence of Josh Jacobs this season, but both MarShawn Lloyd and Kaleb Johnson have shown flashes. Even though he fumbled an opportunity in the red zone against the Buccaneers, I'm taking Johnson to have a pair of touchdowns against Chicago.
The fact that the Packers were giving him that red zone touch is, in itself, an important note. Whether or not that fumble prevents them from giving him more chances like that remains to be seen, but it feels like something is going to give very soon with this Green Bay rushing attack.
Add us as a preferred source on Google