The Green Bay Packers are facing a $15 million problem with 2023 1st-round pick Lukas Van Ness this offseason, and the outcome is all too predictable.
Van Ness is entering a pivotal fourth year with the Packers, and up to this point, it's fair to say the former Iowa Hawkeyes star is not living up to his NFL Draft billing. Through three seasons, Van Ness has just 8.5 sacks and 23 total quarterback hits.
He's had three straight seasons for Green Bay with at least 10 QB hits (12 this past season), but it's just not enough production to justify the aforementioned $15 million problem. That problem is his 5th-year contract option with the team, a fully-guaranteed $15 million price tag the Packers simply cannot justify.
Packers have no choice but to decline Lukas Van Ness's 5th-year option
The Packers will have until shortly after the 2026 NFL Draft to make a choice on Van Ness's 5th-year contract option, and they are almost certainly not going to pick it up.
As the 13th overall pick in the 2023 class, OverTheCap projects Van Ness will have a 5th-year option of exactly $15.381 million, and that price tag is fully guaranteed for injury. Considering the fact that Van Ness also played just nine games this past season, the Packers' decision is even easier.
And you would love to have it be an easy decision, but for the right reasons.
Still just 24 years old, going on 25 in July, Van Ness has plenty of time to figure things out and turn things around in his NFL career. He will be on his third defensive coordinator in the NFL this coming season after playing for Jeff Hafley the past two seasons (now in Miami as the head coach) and Joe Barry before that.
Playing under Phil Parker at Iowa, Van Ness wasn't even a full-time starter when he decided to leave school and bolt for the NFL. He cashed in on his white-hot NFL Draft stock, and the Packers took the bait.
The team's obvious decision -- whenever they decide to make it official -- to decline the 5th-year option for 2027 could make Van Ness vulnerable (or maybe even an attractive option for other teams) to a trade this offseason. A change of scenery could be good for him, but the Packers don't give up on guys very easily.
If Jonathan Gannon feels like he can get the most out of Van Ness, then perhaps we'll finally see him have a true breakout season. But for the time being, the dark cloud of the Packers making it clear where they stand on his future with the team is going to be hanging over the upcoming season.
Declining a player's 5th-year option is a clear message that your production hasn't been good enough, and perhaps that will motivate Van Ness to put it all together in 2026.