Important storylines to watch for Packers vs. Texans in Week 7
The Green Bay Packers welcome the Houston Texans to Lambeau Field for what looks to be one of the best matchups of Week 7.
This is a big game for both teams. The Texans are flying high at 5-1 and will want the win to stay in the hunt for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. For the Packers, this already feels like a must-win game to stay in the hunt in a very closely contested NFC North.
There's going to be plenty to watch in Week 7, but here are three of the biggest storylines in this game.
How does Jordan Love fare against the blitz?
It is fair to say that Jordan Love has struggled against the blitz so far this season. Through the first six weeks of the season, he sits 27th in completion percentage and 26th in yards per attempt when defenses send five or more rushers. Per PFF, he has a four percent turnover-worthy play rate, which is the 10th-highest in the NFL.
This is concerning when factoring in this weekend's opposition. The Texans are one of the more blitz-happy teams in the NFL this season, with a 30.6 percent blitz rate that ranks eighth.
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They have also been incredibly effective at generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Per Next Gen Stats, their 43.1 percent pressure rate is the highest in the NFL. That pressure has caused problems for opposing quarterbacks too, as Houston is allowing a league-low -67.9 passing EPA on pressured dropbacks.
This all makes this a fascinating storyline to watch. Can Love overcome his early-season struggles against the blitz and punish the Texans for sending extra rushers? It feels like the answer to this could decide the outcome of the game.
Can Green Bay establish the run?
If the Packers want to keep Houston's pass rush at bay and force them out of blitzes, one of the best ways to do this is to establish rushing success on early downs. That will keep Love and the passing game in favorable down and distances and make life harder on the Texans' defensive line.
This is no small task, though. The Texans have been one of the better run defenses in football, particularly on early downs. Houston has allowed the fifth-lowest success rate in the NFL on early-down runs this season and they are seventh in EPA per rush.
The Packers love to run the ball on early downs, with a 57.9 percent run rate on first and second down that leads the NFL. Despite this, they have been fairly average in these situations. Through the first six weeks of the season, they sit 15th and 19th in EPA per play and success rate, respectively.
Whether they can buck this trend and find success on the ground early in this game will be key to keeping this offense on track.
Is Keisean Nixon the long-term answer at outside cornerback?
In one of the biggest surprises of the season so far, Keisean Nixon has been getting playing time at outside cornerback opposite Jaire Alexander. Coming into the season, Nixon had played almost exclusively in the slot during his time with the Packers. His last significant playtime on the outside came way back during the 2018 season when he was at South Carolina.
It is still early days, but he looks comfortable in his new role, and he had a good outing against the Arizona Cardinals last week. The question now is whether he can be the long-term solution at the position. This week's battle with the Texans should be a great test.
This Houston offense runs through their perimeter pass catchers. Per Next Gen Stats, C.J. Stroud has targeted an outside receiver on 43.3 percent of his pass attempts this season, which is the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. He has completed 58 of 90 such attempts for a league-high 817 yards.
Stroud has also generated 31.5 EPA when targeting outside receivers this season, which is the third-most in the NFL. Houston is not going to have Nico Collins, but Nixon still has a tough test against Tank Dell. While Stefon Diggs is primarily a slot player at this point, he will also make an appearance on the boundary from time to time. If Nixon can hold his own against this pair, he will do a great job of cementing his place as the Packers' CB2.