The spotlight is understandably shining brightly on the more urgent questions surrounding the Green Bay Packers after their humiliating playoff loss to the Chicago Bears, but it's time to have a conversation about Josh Jacobs.
Jacobs still has two years remaining on the four-year contract he signed with the Packers in free agency, but there's a realistic chance the Pro Bowl running back has played his final snap in Green Bay.
I get it. The Packers have enough problems to worry about and plenty of other potential exits looming large, but let's talk about it.
Why Josh Jacobs might not be back for the Packers in 2026
The Packers signed Jacobs to a four-year deal in name only. It was likely never intended to go the distance.
When Green Bay signed Jacobs in free agency in 2024, former Packers executive Andrew Brandt described the contract as a strong deal for one year, and then "we'll see." Brian Gutekunst and Russ Ball structured the contract to make it easy to get out of after one season, and even easier after two.
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According to Spotrac, releasing or trading Jacobs would save the Packers $8.4 million in cap space, leaving them with just $6.3 million to pay in dead cap. In other words, the team can comfortably move on, should they wish.
If they keep Jacobs, his cap hit will rise to $14.7 million in 2026, and then to $16.7 million in 2027. That might be enough reason to give the Packers pause.
It also wouldn't be the first time they had made such a bold, unpopular move at running back. Just two years ago, the Packers released Aaron Jones three years into a $48 million contract, a near-identical deal to the one Jacobs signed with the team.
When the Packers released Jones, he was 29 years old, had battled through injuries in the regular season, and had 1,177 career rushing attempts to his name. When free agency begins, Jacobs will be 28 years old, has just battled through injuries in the regular season, and has 1,840 career rushing attempts to his name.
Jacobs has completed seven years in the NFL. At some point, his rushing production is likely to decline. We saw some signs of this already in 2025. The veteran fought through a knee injury that undoubtedly limited him, but his numbers regressed in yards per carry, rushing yards per game, and yards per reception.
There are several factors, of course, including an offensive line that struggled to run block for much of the season.
Jacobs is still a fantastic player and an important leader in the locker room. The Packers may decide to run it back for another season, given his value to the team. If they do move on, it will likely come down to his contract, just as it did with Jones.
It's not like Jones' play had declined dramatically. He finished his time in Green Bay with a run of five straight 100-yard games, including two in the playoffs. Jones was the focal point of the Packers' offense. Yet due to his contract, injury history, and potential future decline, Green Bay made a difficult and unpopular decision.
There's a world in which the Packers do the same with Jacobs. They would have to put their trust in Emanuel Wilson, who is a restricted free agent but likely to return. Then there is MarShawn Lloyd, who has sky-high potential but can't stay healthy. Green Bay could also add to the backfield via the draft or free agency.
Perhaps the Packers go one more season with Jacobs, and who could blame them? But history tells us that it's far from guaranteed.
This offseason will begin with several tough conversations. Jacobs' future is among them.