The Green Bay Packers need to start fast against the Chicago Bears, and they will get opportunities to make explosive plays through the air.
Matt LaFleur has faced criticism at times this season for playing too cautiously on offense and not putting games away. It cost them dearly in losses to the Cleveland Browns and Carolina Panthers. But LaFleur handed Jordan Love the keys last week against the Detroit Lions, and that's what it will take against a feast-or-famine Bears defense.
ESPN's Mina Kimes praised Love and the Packers for "the return of aggression" in recent weeks, helped by Christian Watson's breakout return from injury. In the latest episode of The Mina Kimes Show featuring Lenny, Kimes broke down how the Packers can expose the Bears' defense in Week 14.
"This is Jordan Love. Come on. Gotta let the chopper sing. And they have been since Watson came back. Since Watson has come back, by the way, he is first in average depth of target amongst all receivers. He is 10th in yards per route run," Kimes said. "He's their guy against man coverage. Chicago plays a reasonable amount of man coverage."
"It's really opened up the Packers' passing attack again, which felt so constricted," Kimes added. "The Bears' defense — dead last in success rate versus throws of 15 yards or more. Just keep it up. That's my key for Green Bay. Do not shrink against this team."
Packers must let Jordan Love attack a struggling Bears secondary in Week 14
Kimes is 100 percent correct. The Packers' blueprint is to start fast, build an early lead, and force the Bears to put the ball in Caleb Williams' hands. This can't be another conservative, slow-paced battle of the run games, as that favors Chicago.
Love proved last week what can happen when he holds the keys to the offense. The elements will make life more challenging, as an 11-degree kickoff temperature is a little different from the controlled conditions at Ford Field, but it's still advantage Green Bay through the air.
As Kimes points out, the Bears' defense is struggling to stop opponents from throwing beyond 15 yards.
Chicago is phenomenal at forcing turnovers, leading the NFL with 26 takeaways, including 17 interceptions. But this is a boom-or-bust strategy. The Bears are 8-0 when they force at least two turnovers, but 1-3 when they create one or fewer takeaways.
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Even then, some of those victories were close. In games against the Las Vegas Raiders, Washington Commanders, and Cincinnati Bengals, the Bears' defense generated 10 takeaways and the offense turned it over only once. That's a plus-nine turnover differential, yet they only won those three contests by a combined seven points.
The Bears' defense ranks 27th in total yards allowed, 22nd against the pass, 28th versus the run, and 25th in scoring. Per ESPN, Chicago is 29th in pass-rush win rate and 26th in run-stop win rate. Pro Football ranks the Bears' pass rush 28th and their run defense 24th.
But the takeaways cover over the cracks. Case in point: According to Pro Football Focus, Bears cornerback Nahshon Wright ties the league lead in interceptions (5) but also has allowed the most touchdowns (7) in his coverage. Again, it's a feast-or-famine defense.
Taking care of the football is the priority, but LaFleur needs to trust his quarterback to do that. Love has thrown just three interceptions in his past 19 regular-season contests. Per PFF, his turnover-worthy play rate this season is just 2.7 percent, the ninth-best record in the league, and his big-time throw rate is 5.7 percent, tied for the sixth-highest.
Love needs to target Watson deep downfield and stress the Bears' secondary. Matthew Golden and Jayden Reed could also return for this contest, allowing them to find new ways to create space in the passing game.
If the Packers win the coin toss, they should elect to receive the ball. Take an aggressive approach on offense, look to start fast and score early, and force the Bears out of their comfort zone, which is to run the ball and control the clock.
While the Bears try to keep the ball out of their quarterback's hands, the Packers need to let their $55 million star take over.