"Strong deal for one year, and then 'we'll see.'"
That's how former Green Bay Packers executive Andrew Brandt described the four-year deal the team handed Josh Jacobs in March 2024. Jacobs has become a home-run free-agent addition and is still on top of his game, but the reality is that the Packers will have to make a big decision in the near future.
Rewind two years. Nobody ever thought the Packers would release Aaron Jones and spend big money to sign Jacobs on the opening day of free agency.
The Packers handed Jacobs a four-year, $48 million deal that was almost identical to the contract Jones had signed three years earlier. Green Bay structured it with a potential out after one season, and then an even easier exit after two. Per Spotrac, they would create $8.4 million in cap space by moving on next spring.
Packers must soon determine whether Josh Jacobs is part of their long-term plans
Today, in early December, the thought of moving on from Jacobs sounds ridiculous, and the Packers may choose not to. After all, he's on pace for another 1,000-yard season and has already found the end zone 11 times. But it's at least a conversation.
It's better to move on a year too early than a year too late. Aaron Jones was coming off arguably his best stretch with the Packers when they released him. He had rushed for over 100 yards in five consecutive games, including two in the playoffs, and helped drive the Packers to the doorstep of the NFC Championship Game.
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But the NFL is a brutal business, and the Packers moved on. By signing Jacobs, they added a Pro Bowl running back three years younger than Jones, while effectively resetting his four-year, $48 million deal to benefit from the lower cap hits early in the contract.
Jacobs will turn 28 in February. He is nearing the completion of his seventh NFL season. Since signing in Green Bay, Jacobs has carried the football 383 times (and counting). It's not completely wild to imagine the Packers making a change in the offseason, no matter how well he is playing this year.
Would the Packers be tempted to make another move in free agency for a star running back like Breece Hall?
He will enter his age-25 season in 2026 and has rushed for 3,167 yards and 17 touchdowns in 52 career games for the New York Jets.
Jacobs has shown no signs of slowing down, and that could be enough for the Packers to keep him at least one more season. His cap hit rises to $14.63 million next year, which is still manageable.
But we can't ignore the possibility of the Packers moving on, especially since they faced a similar scenario two years ago and surprised us all. Releasing Jones was one thing, but spending top-of-the-market money on a running back? Nobody predicted that.
With Emanuel Wilson playing well, MarShawn Lloyd potentially returning soon, and with a potential opportunity to add another game-changer like Hall in free agency, could the Packers make another bold change at running back?
Jacobs' strong performances may ensure he sticks around through at least 2026, but the Packers will have to consider their options. As Brandt said, they intentionally structured the deal as "one year, and we'll see." They wanted an easy out.
It's not about what Jacobs has done in the past, but what the Packers think he can do in 2026 and beyond. General manager Brian Gutekunst must look into his crystal ball.
Soon enough, we'll find out what it says.