Jared Goff is playing at an MVP level, and the Detroit Lions have the best offense in the NFL through eight weeks. They are the team to beat in the NFC North and present a daunting challenge for the Green Bay Packers in Week 9.
There is one important caveat: they haven't played a single game outdoors.
Detroit benefits from playing in a controlled environment but faces a different challenge against the Packers at Lambeau Field. It won't quite be the frozen tundra, but an early November game will provide elements the Lions haven't seen all season.
The Packers have their own issues entering this game, notably injuries to Jordan Love, Evan Williams, and Jaire Alexander, but the Lions are also banged up and must step outdoors for the first time.
Wind can play a factor at Lambeau, and the slippery grass field differs from the fast tracks the Lions are accustomed to.
More specifically, Goff's numbers are far better in a dome, which can play into the Packers' hands. None of it matters if they can't stop the run, of course, but if they can force the Lions to throw to win, Goff will have to overcome a challenge he has yet to see in his MVP push.
Jared Goff stats indoors vs. outdoors since the start of 2023
Goff hasn't played outdoors this year, but to get a clearer picture of the difference in his numbers, we can look at statistics since the start of last season. He is still a good quarterback in the elements, but his outdoor numbers don't scream MVP.
Indoors, Goff has dominated since the start of 2023.
Indoors
Passes | 400/566 |
Completion % | 70.7 |
Yards | 4,676 |
TDs | 36 |
INTs | 12 |
Rating | 107.7 |
Outdoors
It's a different story when the Lions don't benefit from playing in a dome. They played five outdoor games last season, going 3-2, and all three victories came early in the year while temperatures were more comfortable. Goff's numbers outdoors were far more pedestrian.
Passes | 147/228 |
Completion % | 64.5 |
Yards | 1,594 |
TDs | 7 |
INTs | 4 |
Rating | 87.9 |
Jared Goff stats on turf vs. grass since the start of 2023
We can even take it a step further. It's not just the difference between a dome and outdoor conditions but also the playing surface. Detroit has no trouble moving the ball on turf, and Goff's numbers reflect that, but he hasn't enjoyed the same success on grass fields.
Turf
Goff's numbers on turf since the start of last season? Outstanding. He has completed over 70 percent of his passes and earned a 108.4 passer rating.
Passes | 405/576 |
Completion % | 70.3 |
Yards | 4,810 |
TDs | 36 |
INTs | 11 |
Rating | 108.4 |
Grass
Again, take Goff out of a more comfortable environment, and his numbers decline. The Lambeau Field surface takes some getting used to, and Goff's stats on grass since the start of 2023 paint an interesting picture.
Passes | 142/218 |
Completion % | 65.1 |
Yards | 1,460 |
TDs | 7 |
INTs | 5 |
Rating | 85.4 |
The Packers must stop the run. Detroit put up 34 points at Lambeau last season, largely because it rushed for 211 yards and three touchdowns. Jeff Hafley's unit must force the Lions to win with Goff.
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He is playing at an MVP level and has an excellent supporting cast, but the Packers' path to victory is to make Goff win with his right arm. If they can't stop the run, forget about it.
Detroit will play almost every regular season game indoors this season. The Packers are familiar with Lambeau conditions and a slippery field, but the Lions haven't played an outdoor game since January.
History suggests Goff isn't the same quarterback in this kind of environment, and the Packers must use that to their advantage.