The Green Bay Packers boosted their playoff chances with an emphatic victory over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 12. They needed it. Matt LaFleur's team improved to 7-3-1 and a perfect 2-0 in the division, but the real test begins now.
As things stand, Green Bay sits in a wild-card position. The 8-3 Chicago Bears hold top spot in the NFC North, while the 7-4 Detroit Lions are out of the playoff positions. That's how close the playoff picture is. Green Bay is within touching distance of the NFC North lead one way, and missing the postseason entirely the other.
It's fitting, then, that four of the Packers' final six games come against NFC North opposition, including three games against the Bears and Lions. They also get the red-hot Denver Broncos on the road, and the Baltimore Ravens will come to Lambeau Field. It's a brutal schedule. Here's how we see it playing out.
Game-by-game picks for the Packers in the final six weeks of the regular season
Week 13 at Detroit Lions (Thanksgiving)
Buckle up. This should be a fun one. The Packers destroyed the Lions at Lambeau in Week 1, but they're yet to put in a performance that impressive since the opener. The Lions are on a rollercoaster of their own. No longer the untouchable NFC frontrunners from a year ago, their path has been far more turbulent, led by inconsistent play on both sides of the ball.
As he did in Week 1, Micah Parsons can take advantage of an offensive line decimated by injuries. He even found success against All-Pro Penei Sewell in September, who is arguably the best tackle in football. Expect to see Jeff Hafley put him inside with regularity, as we saw earlier this year.
While the Lions have their defensive concerns, again primarily due to injury, it's still difficult to trust this Packers offense. Jordan Love isn't fully healthy. Nor is Josh Jacobs, or just about any wide receiver. Matt LaFleur will likely go with another conservative game plan, which all but guarantees we're in for a nail-biter. That said, Parsons makes a special play to hand the Packers the narrowest of victories.
Packers win, 21-20 (8-3-1)
Week 14 vs. Chicago Bears
Chicago is a far better team than we've seen over the past six seasons, but 8-3 is flattering. The Bears have only one victory against a team with a winning record, and that came last week against the Aaron Rodgers-less Pittsburgh Steelers.
One area Ben Johnson has upgraded this Bears team is on the ground. Not only is Chicago's run game averaging 142.3 yards per game, but the offensive line entered Week 12 with the league's second-best run block win rate, per ESPN.
That will give the Packers' defense plenty to think about. The good news is that Chicago's defense ranks 29th in pass-rush win rate and is giving up 26.5 points per game. You can run on them. You can throw on them. Like in both games last season, though, it will come down to the wire.
Packers win, 27-24 (9-3-1)
Week 15 at Denver Broncos
This one could get ugly. The Packers' inconsistent offense is finding life difficult against average defenses, so how will they fare against one of the best? They take a trip to Denver against an elite unit in Week 15, and the AFC West-leading Broncos could make this miserable for Matt LaFleur.
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The Broncos rank third in total defense, sixth against the pass, third against the run, and third in scoring. They also lead the NFL with 49 sacks. It's the primary reason they sit with a 9-2 record.
However, seven of those victories were settled by one score. Bo Nix has been good, but not great, although he shows up when it matters the most. Green Bay has a defense capable of slowing down Denver's offense, but ultimately, it's tough to trust LaFleur's unit getting anything going on the road in this one.
Packers lose, 17-10 (9-4-1)
Week 16 at Chicago Bears
The Packers have endured their share of ugly performances this season. While Soldier Field has become their home away from home, with only one loss in their past 15 visits (including playoffs), nothing is normal about this season.
Chicago is a better football team with a run game that can hurt Green Bay. Its defense is beatable but opportunistic, boasting a league-best 24 takeaways. Add in the Packers' offensive inconsistencies and their repeated special teams woes, and this could turn into another frustrating, tough loss. A field goal settles it (again).
Packers lose, 20-17 (9-5-1)
Week 17 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Losing two in a row in December isn't ideal in a playoff race, but the Packers get back on track with their final game at Lambeau Field. They take advantage of home conditions and a leaky Ravens defense.
While Baltimore has only allowed an average of 12.8 points per game over the past four weeks, some context is required. Those wins came against the Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, Cleveland Browns, and New York Jets, four of the league's worst offenses.
This unit gave up 41 to the Buffalo Bills, 38 to the Detroit Lions, 37 to the Kansas City Chiefs, and 44 to the Houston Texans. The Packers might not hit those heights, but they land on their lucky 27 one more time.
Packers win, 27-21 (10-5-1)
Week 18 at Minnesota Vikings
It doesn't matter if the Vikings start J.J. McCarthy, Max Brosmer, or Brett Favre at quarterback; the outcome is the same. The Packers' defense will give the Vikings next to nothing, allowing the offense to control the ball and pick up more than enough points for a crucial victory. The question is whether an 11-5-1 record with a 5-1 division tally is enough for the NFC North crown.
Packers win, 24-10 (11-5-1)