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Predicting the Packers' first five games of the 2026 season

ByFreddie Boston
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love | (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)

The waiting is over. After a long, painful eight-month wait following that game in January, the Green Bay Packers have an opportunity to right some wrongs.

Remember, this team ended last season with five straight defeats. They haven't won since December 21.

That's in the past now. The Packers have renewed hope after addressing issues along the defensive line and at cornerback. They've streamlined the receiving room and welcome back Tucker Kraft in Week 1. They'll have Micah Parsons back soon enough, too.

Up first: Minnesota, New York, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Chicago. How many will Green Bay win?

Week 1: Packers at Vikings

Oh, U.S. Bank Stadium, how much I despise you – not as much as birds do, admittedly, but my hatred for that stadium is right up there.

The Packers boast a miserable 3-7 record in the Vikings' decade-old home, including four defeats on their previous five visits. And one of those three victories only half counts because there were no fans in the stadium.

Once again, the vibes don't feel great for the Packers. It's the Vikings' home opener, and they have renewed hope at quarterback. Green Bay has no Micah Parsons, and potentially no offensive line to speak of. Even if Zach Bako-Bewele and Aaron Banks play, are they 100 percent?

Is 100 percent even enough against a Brian Flores defense that will fire blitzes at them all day long?

Bako-Bewele and Banks might be the least of the Packers' problems. Sean Rhyan is making only his eighth start at center, while right guard Jacob Monk is starting just his second game in the NFL. Flores' disguises will give them all they can handle.

It should be a close game, and the Vikings are hardly unbeatable, but the injuries and inexperience along the offensive line could be a real problem. We may not see the best version of this Packers team in Week 1.

Prediction: Vikings (0-1)

Week 2: Packers at Jets

There's some poetic history here. Week 2 of the 2014 season. The New York Jets, led by Geno Smith, raced to a stunning 21-3 lead at Lambeau Field against a Packers team coming off a tough road loss.

It's only fitting, then, that Smith's return to New York features a visit from Green Bay in the same week of the NFL calendar. The Packers rallied back to win 31-24 that day thanks to 346 yards and three touchdowns of Aaron Rodgers' finest.

It won't take quite the monumental effort this time.

Make no mistake, the Jets have talent. They used first-round picks on tight end Kenyon Sadiq and wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr., who will join Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson in an intriguing offense. Smith also stands behind a solid offensive line.

But it's a team with flaws, notably including a defense that went without an interception in all of 2025. Minkah Fitzpatrick's arrival should help, but Jordan Love will have favorable matchups to exploit in this game.

If it comes down to a quarterback battle, Love is winning every time, just as Rodgers did 12 years ago. Smth has thrown 32 interceptions in his past 32 games, including 17 last season. His PFF passing grade ranked just 36th among 43 qualifying quarterbacks.

The Packers get the job done against a rebuilding Jets team.

Prediction: Packers (1-1)

Week 3: Packers vs. Falcons (Thursday Night Football)

The Packers have won their past 13 home openers. They'll make it 14 when they host the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football.

Atlanta has the offensive weapons to hurt any defense. Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts form a formidable trio. But do they have the quarterback? They will miss both Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. in their season opener, so only time will tell.

Tagovailoa suffered an oblique injury in practice earlier this week, while Penix is working his way back from a knee injury. It's unclear if either player will be ready to return by Week 3, but this game falls only 11 days after the opener.

The Falcons will definitely miss pass rushers James Pearce Jr. and Jalon Walker, who combined for 16 sacks last season, ranking No. 1 and No. 3 on the team, respectively.

No pass rush? Yeah, that's a problem against Jordan Love.

Only Matthew Stafford earned a higher PFF passing grade than Love when kept clean last season. Love hit 18 big-time throws and only four turnover-worthy plays with a 128.8 passer rating when he didn't have pass rushers in his face. That spells bad news for the Falcons, regardless of who they start at QB.

Prediction: Packers (2-1)

Week 4: Packers at Buccaneers

You can count on Matt LaFleur's team to deliver at least one unexpectedly poor performance. Week 3 against Cleveland last year. Week 14 against the Giants in 2023. Week 6 against the Jets in 2022.

Week 4, 2026, against the Buccaneers. Book it.

There's rarely any logical reason for it. Last year in Cleveland, Green Bay was flying high at 2-0. It had destroyed Detroit and Washington at home and faced an "easier" contest against the Browns. But a stunning 13-10 defeat cost them dearly in a tight NFC North race.

The Packers have a team capable of beating the Buccaneers, but Florida in early October? It gives me flashbacks to Green Bay's 38-10 embarrassment in Tampa Bay on a hot and humid October afternoon six years ago.

Prediction: Buccaneers (2-2)

Week 5: Packers vs. Bears

Here we go again. The revenge game we're all waiting for. Will Micah Parsons return? This will be his first opportunity to play after starting the season on the PUP list, and there's reportedly belief that he could return in Week 5. Don't build your hopes up.

Even without Parsons, the Packers match up well against the Bears.

What is Green Bay's weakness? Its offensive line. Chicago's weakness? Its pass rush. That works nicely. Per ESPN, the Bears ranked 31st in pass-rush win rate last season, making it even more surprising that they didn't add a notable name in free agency or the draft.

It's Montez Sweat, Dayo Odeyingbo, and Austin Booker as the Bears' top three pass rushers again this year. Sweat had 10 sacks last season, but this trio ranked 38th, 98th, and 75th in win rate, respectively, per PFF.

Let's be honest: The Packers should've won all three games against the Bears last season. Jordan Love shredded their secondary, throwing for 634 yards, seven touchdowns, and one interception in a little over two games. He exited one early due to a concussion, and then Malik Willis threw and ran all over them.

Chicago's big free-agent signing Coby Bryant is out until at least December, which is a significant loss. That will make life easier for Love through the air.

The concern is how a Parsons-less defense can generate pressure against one of the league's best offensive lines.

But Love will have opportunities against this Bears defense. If it becomes a battle of the quarterbacks, I'm taking Love over Caleb Williams any day of the week, no matter what the rankings say.

Prediction: Packers (3-2)

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