Free agency hasn’t even happened yet for the NFL. Most of the teams still look the same as they did at the end of the season, apart from a few key players that will be returning from major injuries.
It’s still never too early to take a look at what odds are available for you to bet on your team with.
(Never bet any money that you do not have.)
The simplest bet to find, and the only one Bovada Sports Book has up regarding the Packers, is the Super Bowl 53 odds. The Patriots and Eagles are the top two teams with +550 and +900 respectively. (+900 can also be seen as 9/1 odds, or a bet of $100 would pay $900 if it won.)
The Packers are the third favorite to win Super Bowl 53 at +1000, or 10/1. Though they missed the playoffs entirely, they have a healthy Aaron Rodgers returning in 2018 making them a force to be reckoned with. Rodgers is undoubtedly the biggest reason for the favorable odds.
Green Bay Packers
Another important thing to remember about Vegas odds is they’re a gauge of public perception. Vegas may not believe the Packers to be the third best team in the NFL. They’re likely worse than that, but they could also be better.
What these odds mean is Vegas thinks the Packers will be the third most popular choice among the betting public to win Super Bowl 53. Teams like the Vikings (+1400) or Saints (+1500) may actually be a better team than the Packers the same way the 49ers (+1600) probably aren’t better than the Jaguars (+2000) who have less favorable odds.
Analyzing the bet
The Packers are one of the most popular teams in the NFL. Sports books generally don’t produce great value with their odds on popular teams like the Packers. For example, the 49ers having better odd than the Jaguars is due to several things, but mostly the buzz around Jimmy Garoppolo and the large fan base the 49ers have.
They’re not better than teams with similar or worse odds, but they’ll draw in a lot of money. In the case they win, Vegas won’t be shelling out insane amounts of money for those winning bets.
Green Bay has to be looked at through the same scope. It’s unfortunate, but it’s the truth. The Packers will rarely get fair value. They’ll almost always be a few steps higher on the ladder than they should be. Even next year, when Rodgers will be healthy, the defense will have a new coordinator and there’s uncertainty within the division, they probably shouldn’t be the third favorite to win the Super Bowl.
The Packers are getting the benefit of the doubt because of Rodgers. Their odds would be much lower if they were being evaluated as a team without an elite quarterback.
The best value to win the Super Bowl last year was right before the Panthers game when that was exactly the case. Rodgers hadn’t yet been cleared and the Packers were around 40/1 to win the Super Bowl.
If you were to bet that line the thinking would be simple. You would be betting that Rodgers would be cleared and win the final three games of the season to make the playoffs. And anything can happen once a team makes the playoffs.
To bet or not to bet
This is a bet to stay away from for the Packers. Although a 10/1 return may sound enticing it’s still only the third favorite in the entire league. A lot of things can cause the odds to change this offseason. I would wait it out.
If an NFC rival makes a huge splash and signs Kirk Cousins or drafts Saquon Barkley the odds could change. An increase in odds for another team could result in Green Bay’s odds dropping, or the Packers could get jumped entirely. Both are good situations for betting.
The offseason isn’t likely to make the Packers significantly better or worse. Rodgers is the biggest piece to the puzzle and the defense can’t be worse than it was last season. Other teams in the NFC and within the division have more room to get better or worse odds and that’ll open up opportunity to bet on the Packers.
If you like Green Bay to win the Super Bowl then wait on the odds to gain value. If it doesn’t happen then still bet the Packers later because it’s unlikely the value gets worse before the season.
As the season approaches more NFL bets will come out that may be of interest to Packers bettors. Notably, the MVP and Comeback Player of the Year odds. Rodgers will be around the top of the list for both, but exactly where he sits will determine if it’s a good value or great value. Rookie of the Year and over/under touchdown and yardage totals are all bets that come out later.
There will be much to discuss when those odds are released.