Final weather report for Packers vs. Dolphins is Tua Tagovailoa's worst nightmare
The Miami Dolphins are one of the hottest teams in football. Tua Tagovailoa has completed 76 percent of his passes and thrown 11 touchdowns with only one interception in the five games since his return.
Miami has won three in a row but came close to winning the previous two games against the Arizona Cardinals and Buffalo Bills.
The best solution to stopping a red-hot team? Frozen conditions. The Green Bay Packers may have the perfect solution to slow them down with their home-field advantage.
The Dolphins' offense is difficult to stop with their speed, balance between the run and pass, and heavy use of pre-snap motion. But it's a different story in frozen conditions. Everything changes. The Dolphins lack experience in wintery Lambeau weather and have failed when they have played in those conditions.
They are used to the hot Florida weather helping them at home, especially with their sideline in the shade and their opponents standing in direct sunlight. The script will be flipped on Thursday night, handing the Packers a significant advantage.
Final Thanksgiving weather report is good news for the Packers
The Packers didn't exactly prove they could handle rainy conditions when the Detroit Lions came to town four weeks ago, but it's a different ballgame now. The Lions are a tough, physical team that can win in all elements. Miami hasn't proven that.
And it's going to be a chilly night at Lambeau Field. According to The Weather Channel, kickoff temperatures are expected to hit around 24 degrees, but the wind chill will make it feel more like 14 degrees.
Tagovailoa spoke about wanting to "kill narratives" about his struggles in cold weather. He confidently said, "Bring it on." Be careful what you wish for.
There's no doubting how well he is playing, especially as the Dolphins have adapted to more of a quick-passing game that allows them to take time off the clock and dink-and-dunk their way down the field. But Tua's record below 40 degrees isn't great.
Tua Tagovailoa stats below 40 degrees by season (including playoffs)
Season | TDs | INTs |
|---|---|---|
2020 | 1 | 3 |
2021 | 0 | 1 |
2022 | 2 | 0 |
2023 | 1 | 1 |
Tagovailoa has underwhelming career stats below 40 degrees. Including the playoffs, he has completed 55 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and five interceptions.
The Packers are better prepared for the elements, especially with the addition of Josh Jacobs. He has proven he can pick up tough yards. Per Next Gen Stats, he broke a season-best 15 tackles against the San Francisco 49ers and rarely goes down on first contact. The Packers rank third in the league for rushing yards.
Tagovailoa and the Dolphins have the speed to hurt any defense, but tough conditions will make it difficult for them at Lambeau Field. The slippery surface and chilly temperatures eliminate some of that speed, making throwing accurately more challenging and leading to more mistakes.
The team that runs the ball the best will win. Miami has a tremendous backfield, but Green Bay has the power run game with Jacobs and the experience in these conditions to get the win.
The weather report plays into the Packers' hands.
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